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Changes in a globalized and integrated world - opportunities and challenges (Part 1)
Changes in a globalized and integrated world - opportunities and challenges (Part 1)
15/4/18
Under the impact of globalization and international integration, today’s world is witnessing changes in various aspects of social life, including the shift of power from the West to the East and major powers’ adjustments in their strategies which have created opportunities and posed challenges to small and medium-sized countries.
1. The shift of power and the adjustment in strategy
The world has witnessed three major transfers of power which have basically changed the world’s complexion in political, military, economic, cultural and social fields. The first was the rise of the Europe between the 15thcentury and the late 18th century under the impact of industrial revolution, trade and investment. The second was the rise of the United States in the late 19thcentury, particularly after the end of the World War II (1945), which made this country a superpower ruling the world’s order until the late 20th century. In the 21st century, the U.S. considerable decline and the swift rise of several countries, especially China and India, have led to the third transfer of power on a global scale from the West to the East, changing the balance of power among major powers in the Asia - Pacific region, greatly impacting on international relations, prompting a multi-polar, multi-centre world. Against this backdrop, most of the countries, particularly major powers, have made adjustments in their strategies for their rivalry position.
With the aim of maintaining the status of sole superpower, the United States is stepping up its global military, security strategy via force gathering and strategic adjustment towards each region in an effort to contain challengers to its “No.1 position”. However, currently, Trump’s Administration must be cautious about finding the way to balance the U.S. interests in the world, while maintaining and raising its status as a superpower to “make America great again” and ensure that this country still imposes “rules of the game” in the international relations.
After many years of development, China is expanding its strategic space to confirm its status as a major power of the region and the world. It is now employing measures when increasing its military power and rapidly developing its navy to expand its marine operations, extend its influence in Southeast Asia and East Asia, gradually compete for influence in Asia-Pacific region against the United States. It should be noted that China is speeding up the implementation of the “Belt and Road” Initiative, taking part in and fostering the development of the association of five major emerging national economies (BRICS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which are aimed to build China-centred, China-driven mechanisms of cooperation. The rise of China has led to conflicts between this country and the U.S. in many regions worldwide, especially in the Asia-Pacific region and the East Sea.
As for Russia, President Putin is sparing no effort to revive Russia’s status in its traditional spheres of influence and the world against the containment of the U.S. and the West, particularly after its annexation of Crimea. More specifically, Russia has increased forces and weapons, attacked and won numerous victories against the Self-Proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria. It has proved that in spite of economic difficulties, Russia is still a major power which is strong enough to protect its interests and force the U.S. and the West to contemplate its role in solving global issues.
It is predicted that by 2020, Japan will have been challenged its No.3 position as an economic power by India. Therefore, to maintain its status as a major economic, political and military power in the region and the world, Japanese Government has amended the Constitution to encourage the freedom of action towards the issues of national security. At the same time, it has brought into play the “economic diplomacy” tool; strengthened its allied relations and shared responsibilities with the U.S. for international issues; focused on handling its relations with China, particularly disputes over seas and islands; actively taken part in ASEAN-led mechanisms of cooperation to occupy a more important role.
With its recent rapid development, India is very likely to be the world’s third largest economy. In its strategy, India will continue to maintain the balance in relations with major powers, particularly the U.S. and China; to reinforce its influence in South Asia and Indian Ocean; to step up the “Look East” Strategy, extend its influence in Southeast Asia, and pay more regard to maritime security and protection of maritime order.
As far as the EU is concerned, it is concentrating on settling its central issues, such as Brexit, public debt crisis, immigration, terrorism. As a result, regard paid to and resources for the Asia-Pacific region tend to be decreased. However, the EU still maintains its relations with partners in other regions, including the ASEAN.
Meanwhile, ASEAN continues to maintain and promote its geostrategic position, while ensuring the adaptability and self-reliance in its relations with major powers. The Association gives priority to implementing the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and plans for cooperation in the three pillars, namely political-security, economic, socio-cultural Communities; narrowing the gap of development; facilitating integration; maintaining intra-bloc unity; and strengthening diplomatic ties with all partners outside the region, including the EU.
Besides, global issues, non-traditional challenges, particularly populism and protectionism are rather negatively impacting on international relations. Those have supported the protection of partial interests of each countries; resisted international integration, reduced economic connection and support for the freedom of multilateral trade. Consequently, disputes over the interests of the countries and economic, commercial issues have been increased; even “retaliation” could lead to a trade, exchange rate war. Notably, it is the first time a populist nominee (Donald Trump) has won the election for president of the United States. With the slogan “America First”, the US Administration has implemented policies to limit immigration and withdraw from several agreements for the sake of protection of production and national interests.
Things mentioned above reveal that competition for power, interests and strategic position between major powers, especially between the U.S., China and Russia is both negatively and positively impacting on the world’s complexion, creating opportunities and posing challenges to small and medium-sized countries.
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All comments [ 10 ]
Power in international relations is defined in several different ways. Modern discourse generally speaks in terms of state power, indicating both economic and military power.
Those states that have significant amounts of power within the international system are referred to as small powers, middle powers, regional powers, great powers, superpowers, or hegemons, although there is no commonly accepted standard for what defines a powerful state.
Call it multipolarity, non-polarity, or just a messy world – one thing is clear: we are witnessing a geopolitical transition.
The country club of those with the power to make a difference in world affairs (for better or worse) is changing fast: less Western, fewer common interests, more normative diversity.
The “peaceful rise” of new powers would therefore be a major achievement.
To make global cooperation work in a diverse and contested environment requires new levels of societal ties, political and cultural knowledge, and joint thinking, challenging the established and (re)emerging powers alike to move beyond their comfort zones.
Among all the world’s countries these are the ones with the most ability to affect global politics by their choices.
The world’s institutions increasingly fail to match the realities of world power.
It does however question the idea that there is an irresistible “power shift” in the making and that the West and the United States are in steep decline. Specifically it makes a number of critical arguments concerning the new narrative.
Nowhere was this mood of optimism more prevalent than in the land of the last remaining superpower.
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