China is creating two threats to the world
26/3/16
The Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea
and the Chinese economic hard landing are among top global risks, according
to a new analysis from The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
In the update of the global
risk report, the EIU, an office of the Economist, ranks the clash of arms in
the South China Sea at 8th position
and the hard landing of the Chinese economy at the riskiest threat to the
world.
Two days before the release
of the report, in Beijing, Chinese Prime
Minister, Li Keqiang said that with the
continuation in the economic opening and reform, China will not land hard. And the
proper measures are preventing Chinese economy from falling sharply from high growth to low growth
or facing with recession.
However, the probability of a hard landing of the Chinese economy is very
high, reaching 20/25 points in the EIU report.
The EIU’s assessment was based on the analysis of experts. For example, in
the Davos forum at the beginning of this year, the billionaire Geogre Soros
said “a hard landing of the Chinese economy is unavoidable”. He also said that
he is watching, not predicting about the landing.
About the Chinese
expansionism in the South China Sea, the
report predicted that it could prompt a clash of arms in the region.
The
report wrote: “Tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) over disputed islands have
escalated in recent years. Since 2014 reports have proliferated about dredging
work by Chinese vessels, seemingly focused on turning reefs, atolls and rocks
in disputed parts of the SCS into artificial islands and, in some instances,
military bases. This work has profound territorial implications: according to
the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, uninhabitable rocks have a 12mile
territorial zone, while habitable islands have 12mile territorial waters and a
200mile exclusive economic zone. In 2015 China's
efforts were focused primarily on the Spratly
Islands, which comprise 100 small
islands and reefs, subject to competing territorial claims from China, Malaysia,
Vietnam and the Philippines.
However, in February 2016 it was also revealed that China
had deployed surface-to-air missiles on the Paracel
Islands further to the north,
prompting an official protest from Vietnam, among others. With China already mired in multiple island disputes
elsewhere, including with South Korea
and Japan, there is a risk
that China's
growing assertiveness will lead to a military build-up in the region, which in
turn raises the danger of an accident or miscalculation that might lead to a
wider military escalation. Any worsening of the row could seriously undermine
intra-regional economic ties, and potentially interrupt global trade flows and
simultaneously depress global economic sentiment more broadly”.
The
aggressive raising of China
is making the region and the whole world concerned. China just wants to be the centre
of the world and the other countries must depend on it. As a neighbor, Vietnam has being affected by the China’s ambitions, especially the China expansion in the South
China Sea. We must prepared for the worst situation to come and
protecting our sovereignty, as well as our economy./.
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