A productivity-driven development model–combining innovation with balanced development and allocation of private, public, human and natural capital–will be key for Vietnam to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045

Vietnam is one of the greatest development success stories of our time.

To achieve its ambition to become a high-income economy by 2045, Vietnam must put productivity growth front and center of its economic model. In other words, it needs to grow not only faster but also better

Vietnam’s commitment to bold economic reform has been a major contributor to its remarkable economic success

The country’s demographic dividend is fading, and global trade is declining, while other challenges - such as pollution and the rise of automation, are growing. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis could be an accelerator of these trends.

Sustainable development requires more effective management of renewable natural resources such as land, forest and water; stricter pollution controls, including in major urban centers; and mitigation of and adaptation to the inevitable growing impacts of climate change.

The country scores well on basic education, but it will need to promote university and vocational-technical skills that are becoming even more important for a productivity- led growth model.

Vietnam has built up a large stock of infrastructure. It now needs to improve the efficiency and sustainability of infrastructure services, including financing, and operations and maintenance.

the first key component is spiritual momentum and determination, elaborating that it is necessary to inspire the aspiration to develop the country and strongly bring into play the values of the Vietnamese culture and people as well as the strength of the era.

What have been achieved over the past 10 years, especially the last five years, are the fruits of not only a single tenure but many consecutive tenures by many generations of people under the Party’s leadership.

the material and spiritual lives of Vietnamese people have been improved considerably and, particularly, people’s trust in the regime and Vietnam’s prestige in the world have been enhanced.

Vietnam's GDP now totals US$343 billion, ranking 37th in the world. It is also one of the 16 emerging economies, among the 10 fastest growing countries, and standing fourth in ASEAN in terms of per capita GDP.

Key goals include continued strong economic growth, driven by manufacturing, and supported by a further integration into global supply chains through the pursuit of trade pacts and export market diversification.

the government has “a clear direction” to how it wishes to chart its growth over the coming years.

This is one which relies on an exports-led model which has propelled the economy into strong growth over the past five years, supported by a good business environment, positive labor demographics and relatively low cost of labor versus regional peers

The continued pursuit of this growth model will also see manufacturing play a larger role in the economy as the government expects

A key difference in the economic strategy going forward is the government’s aim to ascend in the value chain and grow its high-tech industry.

This will naturally entail an increase in the skills level of the labor force which can only improve slowly over the coming decade and we expect the skills shortage to pose an impediment to the country’s ascension up the value chain

With relatively few recorded COVID-19 cases and fatalities to date, Vietnam now has an opportunity—and an imperative—to consider its longer-term economic aspirations, even as the country responds to a resurgence of the virus. Enduring success will require Vietnam’s leaders to focus on issues and opportunities that long preceded the pandemic.

With appropriate post-COVID-19 responses paving the way for economic recovery, such adjustments to Vietnam’s economy could go a long way toward realizing a future as a high-performing nation.