Viet Nam Human Rights
A war with North Korea would be a catastrophe for the humankind
14/5/17
Early
today, North Korea launched a ballistic missile from the northwestern part of
the country. This is the first provocative move from North Korea since South
Korean President Moon Jae-in took office last week. Moon has advocated dialogue
with North Korea to denuclearize.
This newly test has sparked a threat of
conflict between North Korea and the U.S. and its allies. NBC News issued an
anonymously sourced report claiming that the Trump administration was poised to
carry out a preemptive strike against North Korea if Pyongyang conducted another
nuclear test, as many expected would happen in a near future.
A worried New York Times editorial last week,
headlined “Rising Tensions with North Korea,” underscored the dangers of war
breaking out in North East Asia. During his March trip to Asia, Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson refused to rule out a preemptive strike against North
Korea, telling reporters, “If they elevate the threat
of their weapons programs to a level that we believe requires action, that
option is on the table.”
This all raises a
troubling question: What would happen if the US really decided to do it?
THE drums of war are banging loudly as North Korea escalates its threats
against the United States. US
President Donald Trump has baited North Korea over Twitter warning it was
looking for trouble while Pyongyang threatened to launch a nuclear attack on
the US if provoked.
The
two nations, which are locked in a war of words, have sparked fears a war could
be on the horizon.
Suppose Washington did
decide to dispose of the evil thugs in Pyongyang. How would it proceed? It
would start by heavily bolstering the amount of military assets within striking
distance of North Korea. This would involve bringing in multiple aircraft
carrier battle groups, increasing the number of troops in South Korea for a
ground invasion, moving in large amounts of land-based aircraft, and boosting
missile defenses in South Korea, Japan, and allied bases.
The problem is that such a massive military mobilization can't be
hidden. North Korea would instantly realize what was up. Pyongyang would
certainly have a clear incentive to strike hard and fast knowing it constituted
its best chance for survival. Kim would realize his best chance — maybe his
only chance — would be to strike with everything in his arsenal at the first
sign of a build-up.
A pre-emptive US
attack on North Korea would be an act of war with incalculable consequences.
While no match for the military power of US imperialism and its allies, North
Korea has a huge army, estimated at more than a million soldiers, and a large
array of conventional missiles and artillery, much of it entrenched along the
heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone and able to strike the densely populated
South Korean capital of Seoul.
North Korea would have
every reason to launch a nuclear war. Why would a nation with less
wealth than Ethiopia put billions of dollars
into acquiring nuclear weapons? The answer is simple: to ensure that anyone
considering imposing regime change won't take the risk. If Washington ever
decided it was time to take the regime down, what reason would Pyongyang have
from holding back? None. While there is debate whether Kim's missiles have the
range or accuracy to hit the continental U.S., it does seem likely they could
hit Seoul or Tokyo — one hell of an atomic parting gift. Kim knows all too well
he would never be able to defeat an allied invasion — he may just decide to
take as many souls down with him as possible.
Imagining a nightmare scenario involving even a
small cache of nuclear or chemical or biological weapons is not hard. A handful
of such weapons launched at Seoul could create a panic not seen since the Sept.
11 terrorist attacks. Even just one attack with such fearsome weapons on a
civilian target must be avoided.
In the event of war,
the scale of devastation would be immense just on the Korean Peninsula alone,
even without the use of nuclear weapons. In 1994, the Clinton administration
was on the brink of attacking North Korea’s nuclear facilities but pulled back
at the last minute after the Pentagon gave a sober assessment of the likely
outcome—300,000 to 500,000 South Korean and American military casualties.
A
war now is unlikely to be conventional or limited to the Korean Peninsula. The
Pentagon has been actively planning for a far broader conflict. In December
2015, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said any conflict
with North Korea would inevitably be “trans-regional, multi-domain and
multifunctional”—in other words, a world war involving other powers and the use
of all weapons, including nuclear bombs.
A dangerous
confrontation is rapidly emerging on the Korean Peninsula between the United
States and North Korea, with the potential to plunge North East Asia and the
rest of the world into a catastrophic conflict between nuclear-armed powers.
In
addition, China could intervene; indeed, some say that China would be likely to
intervene. In doing so, China could try to thwart unification... As ROK, U.S.,
and Chinese forces advance, conflict could develop between the ROK–United
States and China. Both Chinese efforts to thwart unification and conflict with
China could further jeopardize Korean unification.
The prospect of a catastrophic war stems not
from particular individuals or parties. It is being driven by the deepening
crisis of international capitalism and the insoluble contradiction between
world economy and the division of the globe into rival nation states. The same
crisis of the profit system, however, creates the objective conditions and
political necessity for the working class to fight for its own revolutionary
solution—a unified anti-war movement of the international working class based
on a socialist perspective to put an end to capitalism before it plunges
humanity into barbarism./.
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All comments [ 10 ]
Such an idea at least seems possible. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, “an internal White House review of strategy on North Korea includes the possibility of military force or regime change to blunt the country’s nuclear-weapons threat, people familiar with the process said.”
Pyongyang isn’t exactly tied to the global economy, so sanctions seem unlikely to bring Kim Jong-un to his knees.
While there are no certainties in modern warfare, one thing is certain: an attack on North Korea to rid the world could be an unmitigated disaster.
Why would a nation with less wealth than Ethiopia put billions of dollars into acquiring nuclear weapons? The answer is simple: to ensure that anyone considering imposing regime change won't take the risk.
Kim knows all too well he would never be able to defeat an allied invasion — he may just decide to take as many souls down with him as possible.
It would be a humanitarian crisis over the world!
North Koreans have demonstrated they could fire an inter-continental ballistic missile into space and ground tests suggest a warhead could survive re-entry.
How Mr. Trump intends to handle this brewing crisis is unclear, but he has shown an inclination to respond aggressively.
The Chinese government is acutely concerned at the prospect of war on its doorstep involving its ally, North Korea.
There is a real danger that the Trump administration will turn to war with North Korea in an attempt to project internal social and political tensions outward against the common “enemy.”
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