Viet Nam Human Rights
»
Analysis-Comment
»
home
»
political-social
»
Vietnam receives positive global exports outlook
Vietnam receives positive global exports outlook
Vietnam is expected to continue growing its share
of global
exports despite decline amid the resurgence in the COVID-19
pandemic after three months of no local
transmissions, according to an HSBC report.
“If there was a new wave of infections in Vietnam, it could still be relatively
better off given that the situation is worse in many other markets and
regions,” according to HSBC Global Research.
Vietnam is not alone as Hong Kong, which had also largely contained the
outbreak, has also seen a surge in cases recently, showing the risks are far
from over and investors need to position themselves accordingly.
“Vietnamese authorities have done a good job in containing the transmission by
far, which increases our confidence that the country is better prepared to deal
with any further waves.
“Vietnam is one of the best long-term growth stories in Asia.
“If Vietnam were a company, we would highlight market share gains, a strong
balance sheet, robust growth, and good management. We maintain our positive
view on Vietnam.”
The pandemic and US-China trade tensions have urged companies to diversify
their supply chains. Japan recently announced a first list of companies it will
subsidise to relocate from China to Southeast Asia.
Some 30 companies plan to move to Southeast Asia, half of which could move to
Vietnam to produce medical equipment, semiconductors, phone components, air
conditioners, and power modules.
The report, titled Asia Frontier Insights: Reassessing the markets: Vietnam
encore, expected Vietnam’s GDP to grow by 3 percent this year, the only ASEAN
country to have positive growth this year.
Despite the outbreak, most economic indicators are showing signs of
normalisation. The economy is getting back on track. Vietnam’s second quarter
GDP growth was 0.4 percent year-on-year despite lockdowns and other impacts of
the pandemic.
Retail sales rebounded by 6.2 percent year-on-year in June while industrial
production grew by 7 percent.
But experts warn that the pandemic is too unpredictable and could impact
Vietnam more negatively than anticipated.
The Asian Development Bank has forecast Vietnam to grow at 4.1 percent this
year.
In its latest update on June 18 it said developing economies in Asia would grow
very little this year since preventive measures against COVID-19 have affected
their economic activity while import demand has weakened.
The International Monetary Fund forecast the global economy to grow at minus
4.9 percent this year, the US at minus 8 percent and the EU at minus 10.2
percent, and China by only 1 percent.
The World Bank expects the global economy to shrink by 5.2 percent, developed
countries by 7 percent as domestic demand and supply, trade and finance have
been severely disrupted and emerging and developing markets by 2.5 percent.
Trade pact
The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which took effect on August 1,
will reduce duties to zero percent on 71 percent of goods, rising to 99 percent
in seven years. This should also be positive for Vietnam’s exporters in sectors
like electronics and textiles, according to the HSBC report.
Speaking at a recent meeting on trade cooperation with EU partners, Deputy
Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong said bilateral trade has
increased from about 4.1 billion USD in 2000 to 56.45 billion USD last year.
Vietnamese exports to the EU were worth almost 41.5 billion USD.
With a population of more than 500 million and a combined GDP of over 15
trillion USD, or 22 percent of the world’s GDP, the EU is the largest exporter
and importer in the world with annual trade of 3.8 trillion USD.
Under the EVFTA, the EU will immediately remove import duties on 85.6 percent
of tariff lines – equivalent to 70.3 percent of Vietnam’s exports.
After seven years, 99.2 percent of tariff lines, equivalent to 99.7 percent of
Vietnam’s exports, will be eliminated.
Vietnam will cut 48.5 percent of tariff lines, equivalent to 64.5 percent of EU
exports, to zero immediately and 91.8 percent of tariff lines in seven years./.
Popular Posts
-
Religion is a part of the spiritual life in society, this phenomenon of the superstructure has been strongly changed with economic - social... -
Vietnam has just done well for the second cycle of Universal Periodical Review (UPR) in Geneva, Switzerland. So, what’s the UPR? an... -
Thai people in Shutdown Bangkok protests Not until this crisis, we have realized the ne... -
Representatives from foreign countries congratulate Viet Nam on its election to the Human Rights Council for the first time on November ... -
A street flowers vendor in Hanoi Another new spring has come to Vietnam, bring... -
If nothing changes, there will be a preferential credit program with hundreds of thousands billion of capital for agriculture and r... -
Recently, several anti-governmental individuals have established series of illegal groups and organizations in the name of civil soci... -
Radio Free Asia (RFA) is a private, nonprofit international broadcasting agency of the United States government that broadcasts and...
All comments [ 20 ]
EVFTA not only promotes trade and investment growth between Vietnam and the EU but also creates a driving force to boost cooperation in improving growth quality, towards sustainable development.
The potential of Vietnam’s growth of export to the EU remains huge. Vietnam’s shipments to seven Western European nations reached 29 billion USD while its exports to the remaining 20 countries only hit 6 billion USD.
The EU enterprises will have a chance to access one of the most vibrant consumption markets in ASEAN and Asia and compete on equal terms with countries signing FTA with Vietnam like Japan and the Republic of Korea.
The EVFTA also creates a driving force for Vietnam to apply labour and environment standards, promote the effective and economical use of land and water resources, thus meeting demand for sustainable development.
The deal will help Vietnam fuel institution reform, create a more transparent business environment, continue improving workforce quality, step up digitalisation of information and management process, and issue a special mechanism to encourage investment in hi-tech and supply chain development.
More efforts are needed to accelerate public investment disbursement, better implement both financial and fiscal policies and push ahead with investment attraction, especially capital flows from the private sector and foreign businesses.
Ministries review and update growth scenarios for the third quarter, the whole year and 2021, along with measures to support the national economy, enterprises, cooperatives, business households and labourers.
The basic structure of the Vietnamese economy will be retained if the epidemic is kept under control in the first half of 2020. If this scenario holds true, the economy will rebound at a growth rate of 6.8 percent in 2021 and continue to grow strongly for a long period of time.
The project aims to exploit the potential of the night-time economy in Vietnam to promote overall economic growth, improving incomes for residents while limiting risks and negative impacts on political security, social order and safety.
The project aims to exploit the potential of the night-time economy in Vietnam to promote overall economic growth, improving incomes for residents while limiting risks and negative impacts on political security, social order and safety.
The country should step up the removal of barriers in institutions and the Government should not intervene deeply into the economy but only hold ownership in some crucial industries.
Vietnam should build the economy based on an international set of indicators, similar to how it developed the business environment according to the index of the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.
It is time to pay attention to the indicators of economic freedom as a measure of the full development of Vietnam’s market economy, especially for Vietnam to overcome the low average development threshold.
It is believed that the large number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements in which Vietnam participates will help to expand market access and also boost the national economy.
Governments should undertake policy measures to reduce the negative impact of COVID-19 and ensure that no further waves of outbreaks occur.
Vietnam’s total export value in the first quarter of 2020 rose by 8.1% year-on-year and its trade surplus was US$3.84 billion.
Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2020 and beyond hinge on the ability to control the pandemic nationally and globally.
Vietnam must come up with disease prevention measures while supporting production instead of imposing a total ban on every sector as in the case of some localities.
Vietnam should focus on projects that are nationally important, already approved and financially ready. Perhaps a project can be broken down into smaller contracts to be carried out across localities, so that more firms can enjoy business opportunities and the multiplier effect will increase.
The manufacturing sector accounts for 19% of Vietnam’s GDP and has contributed nearly one third of GDP growth in recent years, so the sector is likely to become the main channel to convey external impacts on Vietnam.
Your comments