The Great Migration Clash

24/7/20

The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America. For example, more than 60 percent of the populations in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Haiti want to emigrate (Figure 1).

In Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, about half of its population of more than 200 million people want out of the country and to resettle abroad, preferably in an English-speaking country. With 40 percent of the population living in poverty, many Nigerians have already left the country through immigration programs and illegal migration and many others have applied for asylum and refugee protection.

Nigerians had more pending refugee protection claims in Canada in 2018 than any other country globally. The overstaying on a visitors' visa in the United States led to a clampdown by the Administration on US visas for Nigerians. Also, the European Union has warned Nigeria about imposing restrictive visa rules on that country if it failed to co-operate in the readmission of Nigerian citizens deported from EU member countries.

In Afghanistan nearly half of the women say they would leave the country permanently if they could. With limited educational, employment and participation opportunities, Afghani women are the least satisfied women in the world with regard to the freedom to choose what they do with their lives. The difficult lives of Afghani women are likely to worsen if the Taliban, which banned girls from schools and women from public life, retakes control of the government.

The desires of hundreds of millions of men and women who want out of their countries and to settle in another are influenced by a broad range of economic, social, political and environmental factors. Those critical factors interact to produce powerful push and pull forces that operate in origin and destination countries, respectively.

Living conditions in migrant-origin countries are typically difficult and harsh, and have worsened considerably in many regions due to climate change, environmental degradation and more recently the coronavirus pandemic. Housing is typically substandard, educational opportunities are limited, health care is often lacking and many households struggle at subsistence levels.

Violencearmed conflict and human rights abuse also contribute to people's desires to want out. Consequently, in addition to the large numbers of irregular migrants overstaying their visitors' visa, many men, women and children lacking legal authorization to emigrate are willing to risk their lives to reach their desired destinations by any means, including crossing seas in flimsy boats, walking across deserts with limited provisions and hiding in poorly ventilated trucks, with some dying in their failed attempts.

In contrast to migrant-origin countries, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security. Also, and increasingly important, potential migrants are convinced that emigration will greatly improve the chances for better and more secure lives for their children in the future.

Over the recent past the destination countries where potential migrants say they would like to move have generally remained the same wealthy developed nations. The most desired destination country, where one in five potential migrants would like to move, is the United States. In a distant second place is Canada, followed by Germany, France, Australia and the United Kingdom.

In general, those wanting to emigrate are located mostly in comparatively poor developing countries where the populations are struggling with poverty, violence and human rights abuse. The countries where much of the public want to keep others out are found in both developing and developed regions (Figure 2).

Countries with the largest percentages of the public wanting fewer or no immigrants to be allowed to move into their country are Greece (82 percent), Israel (73 percent), Hungary (72 percent) and Italy (71 percent). Significant percentages of the public in large migrant-sending developing countries who also want fewer or no immigrants settling in their country include Nigeria (50 percent), India (45 percent) and Mexico (44 percent).

In addition to the effects on wages, unemployment and economic opportunities as well as increased social costs, many opposing immigration are concerned that immigration will adversely affect their traditional culture, shared values and national identity. They feel that immigration and multiculturalism undermine their conventional way of life, national security and social solidarity, which needs to be protected from the detrimental effects of foreign influences.

Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobiaracismhostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders, ethnonationalists and nativists often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invadersinfiltratorscriminalsrapists and terrorists, and call for them to "go home and stay home". More recently, some populist parties are also using the coronavirus pandemic to stoke anti-immigrant fears by labelling immigrants as disease carriers.

The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country.

Anti-immigrant sentiments have also spread to include refugees and asylum seekers. Government policies to curb the tide of irregular migrants, many coming largely for economic reasons, are undermining the long established and internationally recognized rights and protections granted to refugees and asylum seekers.

The numbers of asylum claims have increased rapidly in recent years. In the United States the number who claimed asylum and had their cases reviewed jumped from 5 thousand in 2007 to 92 thousand in 2016.

Asylum applicants in the European Union increased from 255 thousand in 2008 to a high of 1.3 million in 2015. While in principle people have the right to seek asylum, in reality many governments are trying to prevent, discourage and complicate the growing attempts of men, women and children to cross into their territories and claim asylum.

Since the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees was adopted, world population has tripled from 2.6 billion to 7.8 billion, with more than 90 percent of that growth occurring in developing countries.

Over the next three decades world population is expected to add another two billion people. Virtually all of that future demographic increase will take place in developing countries, with Africa alone accounting for 60 percent of it and some twenty countries in that continent at least doubling in population size by 2050.

It is evident from even a cursory look at population trends that the supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries. Consequently, increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration, with many relying on the services of smugglers and some turning to traffickers.

In response, most migrant-destination countries are resisting the entry of irregular migrants, attempting to repatriate those who are resident unlawfully, raising objections to accepting refugees and increasingly denying asylum claims. The recent political rise of right-wing populist and nativist parties and their increased representation in governments across virtually all major regions reflect the centrality of immigration issues worldwide.

Are politically feasible measures available that could effectively address the Great Migration Clash? Unfortunately, despite regional and international efforts including the recently adopted Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration and Global Compact on Refugees, the answer appears to be not at the moment.

The Great Migration Clash is intensifying, especially with the disastrous economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, which is hitting the poorest countries the hardest. Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle.

Governments sidestepping the struggle between those who "want out" of their countries and those who want others to "keep out" of their countries is a common policy response. To have a reasonable chance at resolving the struggle, nations working together in collaboration with regional and international organizations need to increase their efforts to implement strategies, policies and programs that effectively address the powerful forces fueling the Great Migration Clash.

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All comments [ 20 ]


Gentle Moon 24/7/20 21:39

Migrants have stood at the heart of modern Europe's experience, whether trying to escape danger, to find a better life or as a result of deliberate policy, whether moving from the countryside to the city, or between countries, or from outside the continent altogether.

Red Star 24/7/20 21:40

Perceptions of the impact of migration in some countries are so distorted that their citizens estimate that there are as many as three times the number of immigrants living there than is actually the case

LawrenceSamuels 24/7/20 21:41

misinformation about migration fans “harmful stereotypes, discrimination and xenophobia.”

yobro yobro 24/7/20 21:42

Accurately informing the public about migration might be “the single most important policy tool in all societies faced with increasing diversity.”

Socialist Society 24/7/20 21:43

This is particularly important in times of economic stress, when negative perceptions tend to surface.

For A Peace World 24/7/20 21:44

Migration is often the catch-all issue that masks public fears and uncertainties relating to unemployment, housing and social cohesion in host countries

Vietnam Love 24/7/20 21:44

People in destination countries tended to significantly overstate the size of the migrant population

Me Too! 24/7/20 21:46

While there is growing recognition that migrants can build cross-border social capital, that increasing cultural diversity can provide impetus for the stimulation of entrepreneurship, or that culturally diverse work forces are among the most profitable, the overall perception of migrants in many societies tends to be negative.

Vietnam Love 24/7/20 22:00

Foreign workers in Europe suffered higher unemployment than their counterparts in the citizenry.

Duncan 24/7/20 22:03

The current refugee crisis in Europe underscores the imperative of integration: to achieve healthy societies, immigrants must integrate, but they must also be offered a real chance to reach their full potential.

The free Wind 24/7/20 22:04

Migration is the morally, politically, and economically defining issue of the twenty-first century.

Allforcountry 24/7/20 22:04

How we respond to it reveals a great deal about the state of our society, the integrity of our communities, and the prospects for our collective future.

Wilson Pit 24/7/20 22:05

It is a challenge that will only grow in the coming decades.

Swift Hoodie 24/7/20 22:06

The pace of migration is increasing. People are on the move everywhere and in greater numbers than ever before.

Herewecome 24/7/20 22:10

This is part of the process of globalization, but it is also driven by other events as well, such as wars, catastrophes, and poverty.

Robinson Jones 24/7/20 22:26

Television and other visual media have shown those in developing countries how much better life is elsewhere. Naturally they want to share in this better life.

Egan 24/7/20 22:28

In fact, the movement of people is greatest between developing countries, where just over half of all migrants live.

Enda Thompson 24/7/20 22:29

Crises in regard to large-scale movements of people, and particularly of refugees, are evident in many parts of the world and on every continent.

John Smith 24/7/20 22:30

Europe faces unique problems in dealing with an influx of refugees—one that is admittedly large, but the influx should not have become unmanageable.

Kevin Evans 24/7/20 22:34

Our ultimate goal is to establish a national, social, and communal narrative in which all members of our societies can see themselves reflected. We need, in other words, to create a collective sense of “we” to unite our divided societies.

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