Development of space weapons and risk of a space arms race

 After land, sea, and air, space is becoming the next operational environment once wars occur. Increased development of space weapons by some countries is likely to lead to a space arms race. International military experts believe that this issue is looming large.

Development of space weapons

Space weapons are often known as capabilities used for kinetic, non-kinetic, electronic, and cyber-attacks. Kinetic weapons will launch direct attacks on targets in space by land-based missiles and operational satellites in space themselves, or on targets on earth from space. During the Cold War, the U.S. conducted a research program to develop ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) ballistic missiles with nuclear and conventional warheads. In fact, it has successfully tested the RIM-161 Standard Missile, capable of directly attacking low-earth orbit satellites. Currently, the U.S. is also testing missiles launched from a reusable X-37 space plane for destroying targets on earth.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to develop space-based directed energy weapons transferred during the Soviet period. Moscow has tested the technology to locate, track, and destroy low-earth orbit satellites many times since 2013. Russia has demonstrated some ASAT weapons such as the A-235 “Nudol” missile defence system, the S-500 Prometey missile defence system. It may also use operational satellites for attacking enemy targets in space. China has conducted many tests of ground-based ASAT missiles since 2005. Beijing has basically acquired ASAT capabilities up till now and planned to officially supply the systems to its military in the next few years.

Non-kinetic weapons, which include laser weapons, high-power microwave weapons, and electromagnetic shock wave weapons, are being developed to install on platforms across land, sea, air, and space with a view to creating operational superiority in the future. Laser weapons can take advantage of speed and high-power wavelength to incapacitate enemy satellites, missiles, fighters, and other targets temporarily or permanently. As for high-power microwave weapons, they are capable of destroying electronic devices inside targets, thus doing complete damage to data, electric circuits and central processing units of targets. In a similar vein, electromagnetic shock wave weapons destroy electronic devices inside targets or disrupt their operation for a certain period of time via electromagnetic waves generated by nuclear or non-nuclear electromagnetic rounds. The U.S. has carried out research and development of low energy laser weapon systems to equip its unmanned combat aerial vehicles, which are capable of destroying low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, since 2007. Russia’s highly accurate A-60 laser weapon systems can locate, attack, incapacitate, or destroy enemy satellites.

Additionally, the U.S. is deploying electromagnetic platforms to jam global navigation satellite systems such as Russia’s GLONASS or China’s Beidou. U.S. Department of Defence once acknowledged that its Space Force has carried out over 20 electromagnetic jamming attacks on enemy communication satellite systems around the world. Besides, Russia has also deployed many mobile electronic warfare systems, which are capable of destroying or conducting high-power jamming attacks on LEO satellites, unmanned aircraft, ballistic missiles or precision strike missiles.

Cyber weapons mainly target databases and data handling systems for satellites. This is a new form of attack, which sets down high operational requirements and many information technology skills. Presently, U.S. possesses leading cyber-attack capabilities. U.S. military has taken up establishment of this force since the end of 2018. It has 133 cyber units with total strength of about 6,187 so far and is capable of mounting effective counter-space attacks if authorised by relevant bodies.

The risk of a space arms race

The space is regarded as a strategic dimension in the context of rapid development of science and technology. Military powers, therefore, have established space forces and developed many new types of space weapons. This poses a danger of weaponising space, which threatens strategic stability or even leads to “space wars.” In fact, U.S. Government has publicly claimed that space operations are one of the most important capabilities of U.S. military in the future. It is also committed to diverting more resources into this field. Currently, the U.S. has shifted its focus from counterterrorism to great-power competition, and space operations are a key priority. Space operations are likely to begin in the next few decades. Consequently, the U.S. is making every effort to seize the initiative, ensuring its leading position in this field.

During a space arms race, space command and control will become vital in operations. Successes for U.S. forces in the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, and the Afghanistan War prove that space platforms can be critical enablers for military operations across land, air, and sea. Major powers, therefore, are stepping up weapons development programs with the aim of seizing superiority in the space race.

Presently, the U.S. still takes the lead in the race with 803 satellites, including 200 military satellites and 31 Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. Nevertheless, Russia and China possess many types of electronic warfare capabilities, energy-directed weapons, and kinetic anti-satellite weapons, which are capable of destroying, crippling or temporarily incapacitating U.S. satellites. Consequently, U.S. President Donald Trump released a “Space Policy” in February 2019 and ordered the Department of Defence to coordinate with other forces to establish the “Space Force.” In August 2019, the U.S. officially established its Space Command, which consists of 87 units deployed in geopolitical positions around the world. The Command’s four main missions are: (1) to provide space-based global position and navigation; (2) to timely provide information, technological solutions, and security for U.S. infantry units; (3) to protect U.S. assets in orbit, deterring foreign attacks on U.S. satellites; and (4) to monitor and notify national leaders of a missile attack against the U.S.

Given its Soviet-era technological base and space infrastructure, Russia continues to become U.S.’s biggest rival in space operations. Russia is accelerating modernisation of its space force. Counter-space programs have been consistent and most important goals of this country. Russian Space Force has been reestablished since 2015 as part of the Aerospace Forces. Despite its inferior position as compared to the U.S. in terms of space capabilities, Russia does not renounce its inherent status because the images of Soviet Union as the first nation to launch an artificial satellite and send a human into space still have deep symbolic meaning. Russia, therefore, keeps developing modern ASAT weapons, laser weapons, ground-based missiles that can hit operational satellites, and space-to-ground hypersonic missiles.

The defence-related White Paper of 2015 on “China’s Military Strategy” clearly puts that space operations have become a fierce competitive environment among military powers, and the war is shifting towards an informationised approach. China considers space a critical operational environment, thus gaining control of space operations is key to fulfilling its military strategic objectives. China’s military leaders attach importance to improving space operations, making full use of this operational environment to seize strategic superiority over the U.S., if a conflict occurs between these two countries. With 204 satellites, China has the second largest number of operational satellites in the world. In December 2015, China established the Strategic Support Force with the aim to unitarise Air and Space Forces and strengthen defensive, offensive capabilities in space. Beijing spends about USD13 billion per year on space research and development.

In July 2019, France adopted a “New Spatial and Military Doctrine” and the plan to create a “Space Command” to bolster and develop space capabilities. Right after that, the European Union (EU) also created the European Space Agency, responsible for funding, developing, and deploying the bloc’s armed forces within a budget of USD15.34 billion. In December 2019, NATO officially acknowledged space to be an operational environment. This move partly expresses the alliance’s support of the U.S. while displaying its adaptation to new challenges. In May 2020, Japan hurriedly established a Space Operations Squadron within the Air-Self-Defence Force to strengthen its space capabilities. At first, Japan had planned to create this force by 2022, but stepped up this process for fear of being lagged behind other countries. Currently, Japan is pursuing plans to develop Earth-based surveillance of space, including high-sensitivity radar systems and optical telescopes, and so forth.

According to international military experts, a space arms race may soon be triggered because of proliferation of offensive and defensive space weapons, turning the space into an environment for conflict. This scenario further proves that technological advances are making the militarisation of space inevitable.