Forecasting the World Order in the Post-Covid-19 Era

 Breaking out at the end of 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic is still complicated and shows no sign of ending. Its overwhelming impact has fundamentally changed the world economic, political, social, security situations and promoted the formation of a new world order.

Accelerating the collapse of the unipolar world order

More than 30 years ago, the bipolar world order ended after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the socialist system. The U.S. took this historic opportunity to establish its unipolar world order. Without the containment of the Soviet Union, the U.S. unilaterally waged wars and caused many “flashpoints” in the world regardless of international law. This policy not only gets condemnation by the world, but also consumes the U.S too much economic, political and military potentials, pushes this superpower into crises beginning with the 2008 one. America's failure in foreign policy during 30 years after the Cold War is also reflected in the fact that Washington has not been able to impose “American values” on other countries through wars or “regime change”. In particular, the U.S. has failed in “promoting democracy” through the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia, the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine or the “Arab Spring” in North Africa and Middle East. The U.S. has also failed when using its military might to “promote democracy” in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya. Meanwhile, China has risen to become the world second largest economy, after the US. As for Russia, over time, it has revived and become a new power of the world. Both China and Russia do not accept the unipolar world order led by the U.S. and coordinate to build a multipolar world order.

Amid that context, the Covid-19 pandemic unveiled the limitations of the globalised capitalism after the Cold War and facilitated the collapse of the unipolar world order according to the “Washington Consensus”. After this pandemic, capitalist countries no longer proclaim themselves a “model” for the whole world and strongly question the statement that the collapse of the socialist system is the “end of history”. At the World Economic Forum 2020, most of the speeches of the world's leading experts and politicians shared that Covid-19 pandemic brought capitalism to a historic turning point when Western countries, led by the U.S., could not decide on a unified strategy to prevent the impact of this pandemic. Even the U.S. withdrew from the World Health Organisation – the head agency in the fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus.  Therefore, leaders, statesmen and experts, including the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres; World Economic Forum Founder and Executive Chairman Professor Klaus Schwab and IMF president Kristalina Georgieva proposed a joint initiative called “The Great Reset” to innovate the world capitalism model. Speaking at the British Royal Air Force (RAF) Mildenhall base in his long trip to Europe in June 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden said: “No single nation acting alone can meet all the challenges we face today because the world is changing”. He  called on countries to work together to build a the world shared future, in which the U.S. will no longer behave in a coercive way with other countries and to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic and other similar threats in the future requires international cooperation and coordinated multilateral action. This speech can be considered the end of the unipolar world order led by the U.S. after the Cold War.

Trends in building a New World Order - Yalta 2.0

When the Second World War was about to end, in February 1945, the 'Big Three' Allied leaders from  the Soviet Union, the U.S and Great Britain, held a historic conference in the city of Yalta to decide on the basic principles of the post-war world order. Therefore, the world order established after the Second World War is often called the "Yalta Order" or Yalta 1.0. Today, the Soviet Union no longer exists, and the roles of the U.S. and United Kingdom have also changed radically. Meanwhile, China, the European Union, India and Japan are developing towards world powers, in which China is rising to a world superpower. Therefore, leaders of many countries believe that it is time to reshape the current international relations because they are outdated for a new world order.

This idea had been discussed before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, but due to stagnation in political thinking, many world leaders are not ready to accept a new world order that is taking shape. In that context, the Covid-19 pandemic is considered a strong driving force to realise ideas and efforts for a new world order, in which all countries, including the U.S., will have to adapt to a different world order to meet the challenges of the post-Covid-19 pandemic era. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia inherits the status of the Soviet Union and has become a responsible power to international community. U.S. President Joe Biden also holds that Russia is a new power and will join with the U.S. to ensure strategic stability of the world. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain all the basic institutions of the previous World Order, or the Yalta 1.0, such as the United Nations and its Security Council consisting of five permanent members: the U.S., Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France. These 5 countries have veto when discussing war and peace issues. President Vladimir Putin holds that it is necessary to base on the Yalta 1.0 Order to gradually adjust the structure of world political institutions in accordance with the new international context in order to neutralise the global threats that cannot be solved by a single country, even though it is the most powerful one in the world.

 The New World Order - Yalta 2.0 has recently been mentioned by leaders of some regional powers. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said that “the world is bigger than five” which implies the preferences and expectations of the humanity should no longer be held captive to the will of the five permanent members in the United Nations Security Council, the winners of the Second World War. The reform of the United Nations Security Council was approved by the majority of member states. On November 16 and 17, 2021, the United Nations General Assembly met to discuss the reform of the Security Council. At the meeting, a majority of member states agreed to increase the number of permanent and non-permanent members of the body, in order to ensure fair representation of Asia, Africa and Latin America. President Vladimir Putin proposed a summit of five members of the Security Council to discuss a new world order. The initiative has been accepted by U.S., China, United Kingdom and France, but postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts say that this conference can be considered as the Yalta 2.0 Conference to discuss a New World Order to solve global challenges in the post-Covid-19 pandemic era, that no country or group of countries can resolve.

The trend of a new bipolar world order

If the Yalta 1.0 Order after World War II was based on two poles of the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the Yalta 2.0 Order is also based on two new poles, in which one is the U.S., and the other is the combination between China and Russia. After taking office in early 2021, in his speech to the U.S. Congress, President Joe Biden said that the 21^st century will see competition between a “democratic coalition” led by the U.S. and the “autocratic” states led by China and Russia. Therefore, on December 9 and 10, 2021, President Joe Biden held an online Conference of Democratic States with the participation of more than 100 countries. China and Russia, of course, were not invited as they are considered “authoritarian”. In fact, the competition between “democratic” and “autocratic” countries is the competition between the U.S. and China and Russia. While the former is trying to save its hegemony which has lost its legitimacy, the latters are banding together to reject the unipolar world order led by Washington. In particular, China’s ambition is to become a socialist power leading the world in a new era by 2049. Thus, the China-Russia bond will hold a pole in the new bipolar world order.

With regard to the U.S.-China relations, the Covid-19 pandemic is escalating the comprehensive strategic competition between the two countries in all fronts: (1). Between the model of socialism with Chinese characteristics built on the basis of the political system led by the Communist Party of China and the state-governed market economy with the American capitalist model based on free market economic foundation; (2). Trade war; (3). Competing for the No. 1 position in the Fourth Industrial Revolution; (4). Between China's “Belt and Road” (BRI) initiative and America's “Democratic BRI”; (5). Between USD and renminbi position; (6). The East Sea - where the U.S. completely rejects China's unreasonable sovereign claims; (7). Taiwan - where Washington fully supports Taipei government, while Beijing considers it an intervention into China's sovereignty; (8). Arms race; (9). Human rights - where the U.S. accuses China of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, etc.

The confrontational nature in the U.S.-Russia relations is even more intense than in the Cold War period. In particular, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from many treaties signed with the Soviet Union/Russia, such as: the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty. Against such backdrop, China and Russia are more willing to bond together to neutralise challenges from the U.S. Speaking at the 2020 Valdai Discussion Club, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia and China have built an unprecedented high level of trust and effective cooperation, and can even move forward to a military alliance in the face of increasing pressure from the US.

Thus, in the post-Covid-19 era, the world order is still evolving into multipolarity and multi-centre. Major powers still cooperate and compromise, but will see fiercer competition and containment.