The risk of conflict resurgence in Kosovo

 Although the Kosovo conflict (1998-1999) has subsided for more than 20 years, it now has the risk of resurgence after Kosovo leader Albin Kurti implemented a number of policies that are unfavourable to the Serb community living there while the Republic of Serbia has also responded to protect this community. Therefore, the cause of this risk and its developments are of international concern.

Back in history

With just an area of more than 10,000 square kilometres and the population of approximately 1.9 million people, Kosovo will certainly not attract the attention of the major powers. However, being situated in the centre of the Balkan peninsula, which is an important geo-strategic location of the Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Caspi Seas, this region has been suffering from turbulence and has become the target of major powers in their competition for influence after the Cold War. In 1991, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Yugoslav Federation (made up of 6 republics including Bosnia - Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia) was also gradually divided into independent nations. Nationalism rose strongly again in this Federal Republic and has become the dominant force in the Balkans. Slovenia and Croatia were the first countries to secede in 1991, followed by Bosnia - Herzegovina in 1992, which led to the fact that there were just Montenegro and Serbia in the Yugoslav Federation. In February 1998, the civil war in Yugoslavia broke out because the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) launched a movement for the independence of Kosovo, whose autonomy was abolished by the President of the Yugoslav Federation, Slobodan Milosevic in 1989. To achieve its goals of secession and the establishment of a state with a majority of Albanian Muslims, the KLA launched attacks on police stations and law enforcement agencies in Kosovo. The fierce fighting between the KLA and the Yugoslav Federal Army resulted in thousands of casualties and more than one million displaced people.

The tensions in Kosovo (1998-1999) were why the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) intervened in the Yugoslav Federation. The role of the United Nations, emphasised in the “Desert Storm” operation in Iraq in 1991, was ignored in the Yugoslav war because the US and NATO acted as both a judge and an enforcement agency. By blatantly launching an attack on the territory of a sovereign state like Yugoslavia, the US and NATO officially sent out a message that they have the right to impose their own views by means of military force, not through political initiatives. Because of the Yugoslav Federation’s ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, in March 1999, NATO conducted a large-scale bombing to force the Yugoslav Federation Army to withdraw from Kosovo. According to some statistics, in nearly three months, NATO carried out about 38,000 airstrikes with more than 1,000 fighter jets, which were mainly deployed from military bases in Italy and aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean combined with cruise missiles fired from submarines and warships. All NATO member countries engaged in this operation, including Greece, a country that has always shown its opposition to war. As for Germany, this was the first time this country’s air force entered a war since World War II. Confronted by NATO’s powerful force, the Yugoslav Federation mobilised about 90,000 soldiers along with many means of war. In June 1999, due to NATO’s mighty military strength, Yugoslavia was forced to accept to put Kosovo under the control of the UN, directly managed by the Kosovo Force (KFOR), authorised under the Resolution 1244 issued on 10^th June 1999 by the UN. This resolution stipulates that Kosovo has its autonomy but also affirms the territorial integrity of the Yugoslav Federation, to which the Republic of Serbia is the legitimate successor. The war in Kosovo was over, but the Yugoslav Federation was the country that suffered the most, especially the Kosovo people.

According to military experts, the war in Kosovo took place after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, making the US the only superpower. Therefore, this country arbitrarily devised a new strategy to take over the world, turning the 21^st century into the “American Century” and the “Pax Americana”. With the “Beyond containment” and “Beyond peace” strategies, US President George Bush implemented the goal of expanding its influence in countries that were allies of the Soviet Union. The war in Iraq or the plan to disintegrate Yugoslavia was also part of Washington’s plot. Because its counterweight, the Soviet Union, no longer existed while Russia was still not strong enough, the US quickly achieved its goal in the Balkans. The increasingly fierce war in Kosovo and the risk of protracted conflict has put enormous pressure on Montenegrin leaders to find a way out of the conflicts involving Kosovo Serbs and Albanians. Accordingly, in 2006, Montenegro decided to become an independent country through a referendum. In 2008, with the backing of the US and the West, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence despite Serbia’s objections.

The risk of gunpowder exploding

With the presence of KFOR, the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia temporarily subsided; however, disagreements between the two sides still smoulder and can flare up at any time because of the worsened ethnic conflicts between Albanians and Serbs caused by NATO’s intervention. Another possible cause of conflict is that Belgrade has never given up its intention to bring Kosovo back to Serbia. This stance of Serbia is strongly supported by Russia - a country with many historical ties with Serbia in particular and the Balkan peninsula in general.

After Russia gradually regained its position on the international stage, the relationship between Russia and Serbia grew even tighter. In 2013, Serbia became an observer of Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In 2016, Russia and Serbia signed an agreement to support the modernisation of the military field. Under that agreement, Russia promised to assist Serbia in upgrading its Yugoslavia-era arsenals, repairing MiG-29 fighter jets, T-72 tanks, and patrol vehicles donated by Russia and Belarus. In particular, in August, Russia revealed the possibility of establishing a military base in the Serbian city of Nish. If this becomes true, Russia will expand the cooperation with Serbia in military, political and economic fields, thus building a strong springboard in Southern Europe, creating a strategic advantage that makes NATO wary. On the other hand, Serbia receives relative protection and help from Russia, especially in the military field.

Meanwhile, to protect its independence, apart from the management of KFOR and the West, Kosovo also took many countermeasures. In December 2018, Pristina announced the establishment of its army with a force of about 5,000 active-duty soldiers, 3,000 reserve troops, and a 3-year guaranteed budget for training and procurement of weapons and military equipment of about 300 million euros (340 million USD). The above action was considered contrary to what had been committed between Kosovo with the international community and Serbia.  According to UN Resolution 1244, Kosovo is only allowed to maintain a security force of about 4,000 personnel, while the task of ensuring security and the justice system is the responsibility of the Kosovo Force (KFOR). This was a necessary action of the international community towards Kosovo to ensure peace and stability in the region. Besides, at the end of February 2022, Kosovo asked the US to set up a permanent military base on its territory and urged the US and its allies to accept Kosovo’s effort to join NATO. However, many countries in the world, notably Russia, China, and some member countries of the European Union such as Spain, Slovakia, Romania, and the Republic of Cyprus have argued that the recognition of Kosovo’s independence is a violation of UN Resolution 1244, disregarding the legitimacy of the internationally recognised border. Additionally, this recognition will set a very harmful precedent for the international legal system and may fuel ethnic conflicts because Belgrade has consistently denied the independence of Kosovo. Indeed, the Kosovo Serbs (about 50,000 people), who always receive financial support as well as social services from the Serbian government, regularly fight for the incorporation of their residential area into Serbia.

The possible cause of conflict can stem from the declaration of Kosovo leader Albin Kurti that from 1^st August 2022, all identity documents and licence plates of Kosovo Serbs would be invalid. Kosovo will launch a campaign to impose “law and justice” on all territories claimed by itself. However, under the pressure from the US and the EU, Kosovo and Serbia reached an agreement by which Belgrade agreed to remove immigration documents for Kosovo people while Kosovo made a similar move when delaying the changes of licence plates and documents to 31^st October 2022. However, these moves still cause fury among the Kosovo Serbs. Besides, the Serbian army has been conducting drills near the administrative border with Kosovo since 31^st August 2022. According to Serbian Defence Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic, the exercise is aimed at maintaining a high level of combat readiness of units and their reaction capability in urgent situations as well as ensuring peace and security along the administrative lines in Kosovo and Metohija. Furthermore, President Aleksandar Vucic issued a firm statement expressing Belgrade’s stance that Serbia wants peace but will not allow any force to oppress the Serbian people. He also said that Kosovo had rejected all proposals from Serbia to find a solution to restore harmony, and accused Pristina of having the intention to remove Serbs from Kosovo.

These tensions have made the international community worry that the peace in Kosovo as well as the stability in the Balkan peninsula can hardly be maintained. If this happens, the parties involved will be dragged into the conflict and this conflict may become a new war while the conflict in Ukraine is still ongoing.