HSBC: VN’s GDP growth poised to rebound 8.1% in 2021

Meanwhile, HSBC also revised down its GDP growth forecast for Viet Nam from 3% to 2.6% in 2020, accounting for the negative impact of the second wave.

High frequency mobility indicators are now suggesting a strong rebound in economic activity, back to pre-pandemic levels.

Moreover, the external sector continues to improve. Exports rose over 7% year-on-year in July and August, thanks to strong growth in computer shipments that have more than offset the weakness in garment products.

To help boost the economy, Viet Nam’s government has so far announced stimulus packages worth VND279 trillion (US$12 billion or 4.4% of GDP), consisting of tax deferrals and direct cash hand-outs to poor households, the report stressed.

Referring to challenges and risks for Viet Nam’s economy in the upcoming time, the report said that headline unemployment rate climbed sharply to 2.7% in the second quarter, with urban jobless rate jumping to its highest level in a decade of 4.5%.

Externally, subdued global demand remains a risk to Viet Nam’s manufacturing sector. This is particularly relevant to the country's textiles and footwear industries, where export orders have been hard hit.

HSBC supposed that the second COVID-19 wave in July will likely result in the government adopting a more cautious policy toward opening its borders, thus tourism will likely bear ongoing challenges until there is an effective vaccine.

HSBC is one of the world's largest banking and financial services organizations, with operations in 64 countries and territories. It serves more than 40 million customers through global businesses: wealth and personal banking, commercial banking, and global banking & markets.