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VN may become upper-middle-income country in 2023

15/12/20

 The Japan Centre for Economic Research (JCER) has predicted that Viet Nam will become an upper-middle-income country in 2023, and its GDP going onto surpass Chinese Taipei by 2035.

The JCER recently released a medium-term forecast of Asian economies entitled “Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?”, which addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and looks at how Asian economies are faring compared with others around the world.

In the standard scenario, JCER assumes that the pandemic is a transient event that will not affect economic structures over the medium term.

Under this assumption, only China, Viet Nam, and Chinese Taipei are on track to maintain positive year-on-year growth rates in 2020.

In relation to Viet Nam, it is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of approximately 6% in 2035 due to its strong exports. 

This would therefore propel the Vietnamese economy to overtake that of Chinese Taipei in 2035 in terms of scale whilst also making it the second largest economy in Southeast Asia after Indonesia.

Indeed, the nation is poised to achieve upper middle-income status by 2023, with income per capita set to reach US$11,000 by 2035.

The report also included a severe scenario that describes an outcome in which the coronavirus not only damages today’s economy but also affects urbanisation, trade openness, R&D spending, and a host of other factors, undermining countries’ potential growth rates over the medium term.

According to this scenario, the growth rates of the US, Viet Nam, Singapore, and others in 2035 would be significantly lower than those under the standard scenario, largely due to trade blockages.

In addition, China would therefore be relatively unaffected and would be capable of emerging in a strong position.
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All comments [ 20 ]


The free Wind 15/12/20 21:14

Both domestic and foreign economists agree that Vietnam has recorded remarkable growth since 2016 and is likely to maintain the strong growth momentum in the future. But the country is confronted by numerous challenges posed by the fourth industrial revolution, slowing global growth and climate change.

Duncan 15/12/20 21:23

Vietnam is facing a rapidly aging population, the possibility of slowing productivity growth and low investment efficiency.

Swift Hoodie 15/12/20 21:30

The country needs to continue taking the right steps so as to seize on opportunities and manage risks in the future, despite having the potential to maintain its ongoing development success.

Herewecome 15/12/20 21:31

Vietnam needs to improve the economic institutions and change its growth model based on innovations.

Voice of people 15/12/20 21:36

Lower middle-income Vietnam will try to sustain high economic growth to become a high-income country by 2045

Wilson Pit 15/12/20 21:38

Vietnam could soon climb onto the upper-middle income classification

Allforcountry 15/12/20 21:39

In order to reach the high-income status, Vietnam will need to maintain its current growth speed for the next decades

Gentle Moon 15/12/20 21:55

t is essential to make a breakthrough in institutional reform to better mobilize resources for development and prevent splurge and corruption in state resources management.

Vietnam Love 15/12/20 22:01

Five years later, in 2030, as Vietnam marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vietnam is set to be an upper middle-income country.

Red Star 15/12/20 22:02

Over the years, Vietnam has gained major socio-economic achievements that placed the country among the fastest-growing economies in the region and of the world, according to the Party chief and State president.

LawrenceSamuels 15/12/20 22:02

With improvement in the growth quality and a solid foundation of macro-economy, the country maintained a positive growth rate at a time of global recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vietnam Love 15/12/20 22:03

Vietnam remains firm in reaching the highest socio-economic development targets possible for 2020 and of the 2016 – 2020 period

yobro yobro 15/12/20 22:03

the poverty rate has gradually declined from 58% in 1993 to 9.88% in 2016 and below 3% in 2020.

Socialist Society 15/12/20 22:04

other aspects of social security, healthcare, training – education, science – technology have also witnessed positive transformation.

Me Too! 15/12/20 22:05

From a low starting point of a poor and underdeveloped country, Vietnam has now turned into a developing one with a population of nearly 100 million.

Alian 15/12/20 22:05

The country has set up diplomatic relations with most of countries in the world, proving to be a credible and responsible partner of the international community.

Robinson Jones 15/12/20 22:07

the country’s economic growth is still disproportionate to its potential.

Enda Thompson 15/12/20 22:09

After four years of high economic growth, Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2020 is forecast at around 3%, while the economy is struggling with negatives impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic

Egan 15/12/20 22:10

The government would continue to improve the legal environment to ensure a harmonized relationship among the State, the market and society.

John Smith 15/12/20 22:15

Better conditions must continue to be created for the private sector to become one of the main driving forces behind Vietnam's growth.

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