The
year 2020 was a year like no other. Many unprecedented things happened during
the pandemic – the word was named 2020’s word of the year. We’re entering the
new year with a new hope despite the fact that COVID-19 transmission is still
skyrocketing in many countries.
COVID-19
has turned the world upside down. Grief and sorrow may continue in 2021 but
after one year, it’s important to reflect on the last 12 months and
anticipate an opportunity to reset for the year ahead.
Việt
Nam’s gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to grow 2.91 per cent in 2020 –
the lowest in recent decades. Like other countries, the pandemic had
devastating impacts on the country’s economy and society with tens of millions
of labourers affected while business closures hit a record high.
However,
despite challenges, Việt Nam has been seen as a bright spot in a bleak
picture of the world economy. The country is one of the 10 economies with the
highest GDP growth in 2020.
When
the virus emerged in Wuhan, China in early 2020, many people worried there
could have been an outbreak in Việt Nam given it is China’s neighbour, but this
did not happen. And when people feared its trade could have been strangled as
most of its trading partners were under lockdown, Việt Nam’s trade surplus hit
a 5-year high of more than US$19 billion.
The
achievements Việt Nam has gained in this “unprecedented time” is testament to
the strong resilience of the domestic economy.
Many
experts and institutions highlighted Việt Nam’s success in controlling the
pandemic as the top reason for the country’s economic success. Yes, but in my
opinion, the intrinsic strength of Việt Nam’s economy has been tested in these
hard times.
From
the Government’s side, introducing appropriate policies at the right time
is not enough, but enforcement is equally important. To a certain extent, the
implementation of Việt Nam’s economic policies has not been as strong and
consistent as the pandemic fighting policies.
If
people talk about the pandemic and braving challenges together in 2020, in 2021
we will look forward to recovery post-pandemic. The APEC 2021 in New Zealand
has selected the theme “Join. Work. Grow. Together.” with recovery being a
focus in the three main areas, including strengthening economic and trade
policies, increasing inclusion and sustainability by building a better society
for all people and generating a green recovery and pursuing innovation and a
digitally enabled recovery.
In
2021 Việt Nam can have economic growth of from 6.5 per cent to even higher than
7.0 per cent, as predicted by many local and international institutions. It is
essential for Việt Nam to recover quickly while accelerating structural
and institutional reforms, taking into account the advantages of deepening
integration and the digital era as well as uncertainties for appropriate risk
management./.
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In hardship, the agriculture sector has demonstrated its importance in the economy. Though its contribution to GDP is falling, Việt Nam’s agricultural production has a rather competitive advantage and it was agriculture that supported the economy in difficult times, especially providing a buffer for the informal sector.
Việt Nam’s success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic is the most important factor that helped stabilise livelihoods, production and consumption as well as backing the recovery after the lockdown was lifted.
The Government’s supporting policies were also an important factor promptly propping up the economy. Besides the drastic measures to combat the pandemic, the Government has issued many policies to help business and labourers such as deferring taxes and land rent, reducing many business fees, cutting interest rates and promoting credit and investment.
Việt Nam’s lessons have demonstrated the significance of building and maintaining macroeconomic stability as a meaningful factor to strengthen the resilience of the economy.
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