Global security viewed from the Munich Security Conference of 2022

 The Munich Security Conference of 2022 took place from the 18^th of February, 2022 to the 20^th of February, 2022 amidst the complex developments of COVID-19, the unresolved differences between Russia and the West, and the deadlock in the Middle East peace process and the nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran. That context reveals that the world security still consists of thorny issues.

The Munich Security Conference is one of the world’s leading security forums debating international political issues on the balance of power in international relations and the consolidation of the global legal system and the world order. This year’s Conference welcomed the participation of more than 30 heads of states or governments, about 100 ministers and senior officials, and many experts in foreign, security, defence, and economic policies, including highest-ranking officials of important international organisations, such as the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and the European Union (EU). However, no officials from Russia attended this Conference. The main themes of this year’s Conference included the fight against COVID-19, global climate change combat, democracy, technological rules, the strengthening of the trans-Atlantic alliance, growing tensions in East Europe and some hot spots worldwide, the EU’s future and Europe’s role in handling crises. Notably, the Ukraine crisis and the relations between Russia and NATO took centre stage at the Conference. Addressing the Conference, Secretary-General of the UN António Guterres urged all parties to be extremely careful with their rhetoric, adding that public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not to inflame them. According to him, the threat to global security now is more complex and probably higher than in the Cold War. The Secretary-General of the UN also stressed that “during much of the Cold War, there were mechanisms that enabled the protagonists to calculate risks and use backchannels to prevent crises; today, many of those systems no longer exist.”

Unparalleled tensions between Russia and the West

It was the first time that Russia had not participated in a Munich Security Conference. Russia’s absence from the Munich Security Conference of 2022 proves that tensions between Moscow and the West have increased to an unprecedented level. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, in spite of tensions between Moscow and the West, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov attended the Munich Security Conference of 2015. Prior to the Conference of 2022, Russia had given the draft U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia security treaties to Washington and NATO respectively, while asking those parties to join negotiations about the signing of legally binding agreements aimed at shaping a comprehensive, equal, stable, long-term security architecture in Europe. From the 10^th of January, 2022 to the 12^th of January, 2022, Moscow, Washington, and NATO had conducted negotiations about the two agreements. During those negotiations, Moscow had asked NATO to stop its expansion, not to initiate Ukraine and Georgia into this organisation, not to install offensive weapon systems in its member states bordering Russia, and not to deploy its military forces and weapons outside East European countries where this alliance had been present prior to May 1997. However, the US and NATO completely opposed those proposals by Russia. Such a move by Washington and the West led to more heightened tensions between Moscow and the West. In his speech at the Munich Security Conference of 2022, Secretary-General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg underlined that nations are free to choose their own path, and NATO’s expansion has been providing a foundation for spreading freedom and democracy in Europe. Meanwhile, Russia believes that freedom to choose alliances is not unconditional; it must be conditional and not undermine other countries’ security. According to Moscow, NATO’s admission of Ukraine is aimed at turning this country’s territory into a military base against Russia. Currently, although Kyiv has yet to join NATO, the US has constructed military bases and facilities for its hypersonic weapon systems in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin ever stated that hypersonic missile systems which Washington intends to deploy in Ukraine could launch pre-emptive attacks on Russia’s territories within three or four minutes, and it is a “red line” for the US and NATO.

Speaking at this year’s Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged NATO to admit Ukraine into this alliance as soon as possible. According to him, Ukraine possesses “the most powerful army in Europe,” and it would be a “security shield” of this continent. However, representatives of NATO member states at this Conference all hesitated over the President’s call as NATO’s admission of Ukraine would bring about a confrontation or even a military conflict between this alliance and Russia. If Ukraine was a member of NATO, it would adopt military measures to protect its territorial integrity in Crimea, which would be faced with Moscow’s military response and certainly lead to a war between Russia and NATO. It should be noted that in 2021, the US, Ukraine, and 30 allied countries and partners of NATO organised the “Sea Breeze” Exercise in the Black Sea. The Exercise mobilised 40 warships, hundreds of aircraft, and a large amount of military hardware. That was a large-scale exercise by Washington and NATO since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. More seriously, British Destroyer HMS Defender went into the 12 nautical mile limit of Crimea’s territorial waters to challenge Moscow, forcing Russian Navy to fire warning shots. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that if Washington continues ignoring Moscow’s security needs and admitting Ukraine into NATO, Russia will take military and military technical measures in response.

There should be more dialogues between the West and Russia

In order to settle differences between the West and Moscow, addressing the Munich Security Conference of 2022, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi called on Western countries to keep maintaining dialogues on the basis of respecting Russia’s concerns over NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe. According to the Chinese Minister, although all parties have a right to express their own concerns, it is necessary to pay attention to Russia’s legitimate concerns. He believed that the “only way out” of the Ukraine crisis is all parties join more detailed discussions to develop optimal, serious solutions, methods, and road maps for the Minsk Agreements. At the Munich Security Conference of 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson required countries to pursue the path of peace and dialogue, put more efforts, and take cautious steps so as to avoid making serious mistakes or complicating the situation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also believed that there are still opportunities to defuse tensions through diplomatic channels as in fact, Russia is very interested in negotiations about its security demands proposed in the draft U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia security agreements. According to the German Chancellor, regardless of all differences, the West should back negotiations over weapon control and transparency in international relations. Besides, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference of 2022, Foreign Ministers of the world's seven largest advanced economies (G7) joined a meeting to find solutions to tensions.

The Middle East peace process

On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference of 2022, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Germany, France, Egypt, and Jordan met one another to discuss solutions to the peace process in the Middle East. In the Joint Statement released after the meeting, the four Ministers of Foreign Affairs (1) emphasised their commitment to support all efforts to achieve a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace, (2)  respected legitimate rights of all parties on the basis of the Two-State Solution, in accordance with international law, relevant UN resolutions, and agreed parameters, including the Arab Peace Initiative, (3) expressed their concern over tensions on the ground and recalled the urgency of the resumption of serious, meaningful, and effective talks and negotiations directly between the parties or under a UN umbrella; (4) called for further mutual confidence-building measures based on reciprocal commitments, with a view to improving living conditions for the Palestinian people and restoring meaningful negotiations, (5) called on the parties to refrain from all unilateral measures that would undermine the Two-State Solution and the prospects of a just and lasting peace, in particular the building and expansion of settlements, the confiscation of land and the eviction of Palestinians from their homes, as well as from any acts of violence and incitement. Moreover, participants in the Munich Security Conference of 2022 also discussed the fragile security situation in the Sahel of Africa, including 9 countries (Senegal, Mauritanie, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Tchad, Sudan, and Eritrea) and efforts to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for fulfilling the Deal between the P5+1 and Iran.

Generally speaking, the results of the Munich Security Conference of 2022 are not good enough and reveal that global security still consists of complex issues. Shortly after this Conference, on February 24^th, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” aimed at “demilitarising” Ukraine and protecting the people of Donbass, while warning NATO not to intervene in Moscow’s operation. Many strategic planners around world predict that in the upcoming time the world situation will witness more complex developments.