Việt Nam’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 was consolidated thanks to the solid performance of export-oriented manufacturing and recovering service sector, according to the Việt Nam Macro Monitoring report recently released by World Bank.
The country’s GDP grew by 5.0 per cent year-on-year in Q1-2022, comparable to the growth rate in Q4-2021, yet was still two percentage points below pre-pandemic rates.
Industry and construction and services sectors grew 6.4 per cent year-on-year and 4.6 per cent year-on-year, respectively, contributing 4.3 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth. Growth of industry and construction was driven by strong external demand for manufactured products, while services sector performance varied across sub-sector.
Finance, banking and insurance, and information and telecommunications have been exceptionally resilient over the past two years and maintained solid growth. On the other hand, accommodation and catering services were 1.8 per cent lower than a year ago, and well below their pre-pandemic level, the report pointed out.
The industrial production index grew by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in March, comparable to pre-pandemic rates, while retail sales growth accelerated from 4.1 per cent in February to 9.4 per cent, the second-highest growth rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This rebound is partly due to the post-pandemic resumption of economic activities and was driven by a 10.7 per cent growth in the sales of goods.
The merchandise trade balance posted a surplus of US$1.4 billion in March, while registered and disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) remained stable amid global uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4 per cent (year-on-year) in March, compared to 1.4 per cent in February. This is the highest inflation rate in seven months but remains well below the 4.0 per cent target.
According to the World Bank, rising consumer and producer prices warrant close monitoring of domestic price developments as rising inflation would affect the recovery of domestic consumption and economic growth. While CPI increases have been subdued in 2021 due partly to slack aggregate demand, accumulated increases in intermediate and producer price index in the last three quarters could impact production decisions and translate into higher consumer prices, especially food prices.
In the short run, targeted policy intervention to alleviate the impact of the price hikes on the general population, and especially on the most vulnerable is recommended. The temporary petroleum tax reduction recently introduced by the authorities is one such short term measure. In the medium term, other measures would include a more targeted, effective, and responsive social protection system that would help build resilience to shocks in the economy. If price increases persist, the economy should be allowed to adjust to the price changes.
The authorities should consider structural reforms to help the economy become more productive and increase aggregate supply. These would include tax breaks for productive and innovative investments, reducing barriers to doing business and logistics costs and investing in the education and technical training of the workforce, said the World Bank./.
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The Government was required to reduce compliance costs for enterprises, there were some policies being drafted that might push up costs and cause difficulties for firms.
Economy will lead to a strong nation with wealthy people and a democratic, fair and civilised society, where human rights, citizens’ rights and democracy continue to be promoted.
More attention to be paid to major issues, including people’s right to self-mastery, and agreed with the proposal to organise more seminars to collect opinions from organisations and individuals.
People need sense of responsibility to ensure the quality and progress of the document, emphasising the need to step up the communication work to raise public awareness of the project.
This makes the business environment improvement effort inconsistent and inefficient!
A majority of the business community expected the Government to remove and amend regulations about business lines that required prerequisites mentioned in the Investment Law 2020, together with the abolishment of other regulations which were causing difficulties for businesses.
Digital transactions have helped reduce costs and trade risks and fostered better integration in emerging markets, thereby supporting trade growth.
Việt Nam has been on the right track towards the goals of cutting carbon emissions and phasing out coal mine plants but will need more vigorous financial and institutional changes to deliver a green, sustainable and inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
With bold commitments made at COP26, the Vietnamese Government has had a clear answer, which is to pursue green and inclusive rebound.
Việt Nam will actively partake in global trends such as reopening, socio-economic development, green transition and digital transformation.
The transition to the green economy will bring job opportunities and long-term sustainable growth for countries and Việt Nam needs to act now to be able to meet its commitments of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Việt Nam is one of the few developing countries that has been stepping up and made commitments in carbon neutrality and elimination of coals, fuels.
Viet Nam’s economic growth will be boosted by export-oriented manufacturing, increased investment, and expanding trade.
The growth momentum is expected to continue, thanks to ongoing reforms to improve the business environment and Viet Nam’s participation in multiple free trade agreements involving almost all advanced economies.
Viet Nam can maintain inclusive growth by softening the pandemic’s impact on poverty and incomes.
While Covid-19 has impacted the world significantly, Vietnam have managed to contain the virus comparably successfully. Although remaining vigilant, the government have introduced incentives and offered financial assistance in order to encourage economic growth, isolation orders have been lifted and businesses allowed to reopen and resume business.
The economy of the future is going to be the green economy. By moving more quickly toward that green economy, Việt Nam is taking an important step in advancing its own interest and rapid and sustainable growth.
Việt Nam has the opportunity to create a more dynamic sustainable inclusive society and economy that has competitive advantages that will attract investment from all over the world and put it in good stead for the decades to come.
Experts believe this is largely down to preparation, and the country having acted quickly and decisively at the very beginning of the pandemic.
Vietnam has proven their ability to handle such a threat in a way that other countries, even those far more developed or with much higher GDP’s have failed to. With business in the country picking back up, Vietnam hope to capitalise on their newly earnt trust by creating partnerships and attracting foreign investment.
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