“Bad scenario” of the post-Arab Spring

22/02/2014
February 17, 2014, three years after “Arab Spring” intruded into Libya, which thrusted the inherently prosperous country in North Africa into a period of instability and turmoil. This event sparked a series of violent protests and paved the way for military intervention by the West to overthrow the regime of Gadhafi in Libya. NATO troops have “withdrawn smoothly”, regimes accused of “dictatorship” by Western countries has ended but Libya is still engulfed in violence and division.
So far, the “Arab Spring” has passed, the regime of former Libya President Gadhafi has collapsed but the country Libya has not yet stable. Over three turbulent years by a series of political events, the transition process in this country can not be performed or even failing. Conflicts between armed groups, kidnapping and killing of diplomats, government officials consecutively happen. The protests and blockade in oil facilities have hampered the activities of the government, seriously threatened the economy which much depends on oil.
Political tensions in Libya led to the plots to coup. The last February 14, a senior General in the Libyan army called to dissolve the National Assembly and called on the Government to “save” the country. Meanwhile, the weak military of Libya can not control the armed groups which “blossomed” since the war that toppled Gadhfi’s regime, causing many regions divided by the control of armed opposition groups. The armed groups are behind the political factions in the power struggle between the Prime Minister , who is pro- Western, and Islamist groups in Parliament, who try to weed him out of political arena. Many mass clashes have happened between factions causing heavy casualties. Recently violence has caused ​​Libya Assembly declared a state of emergency in the Southern desert areas.
Unstable political situation seriously affected to the Libya’s economy. Dilemma of government’s control has made chances for the separatist forces in the East to declare independence and occupy the oil fields in order to arbitrarily export. Petroleum industry is regarded as the lifeblood of Libya’s economy, accounting for 65% of the country's GDP. Therefore, as long as the oil production is sealed to serve the political interests of the different forces, the country still faces the risk of economic collapse. Not economy but politics determines the fate of this North African country. Libya’s ecomomy as well as the process of democratic transition depend on whether they achieve a political agreement between the militant leaders or not. There are no signs of any national dialogue towards a comprehensive solution to help Libya avoid threats to national unity as well as the in trouble economy.

Destructive power of the storm “Arab Spring” has made Libya, a powerful oil producer in the region, split into small pieces by manipulation of the various armed groups. Libya war ended but the transition period in this country has not yet been able to begin. As a number of neighboring countries in North Africa, Libya has gone through three dark years and the “bad scenario” could still happen in the post-Arab Spring.
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All comments [ 10 ]


Quân Hoàng 22/2/14 14:07

War is the only enemy of all development.

Phạm Hiếu 22/2/14 21:07

I dont think that such revolutions can renovate a society because the essence of problem depends on policies of the ruling party.

Huy Quốc 22/2/14 21:13

It can be seen that politics and security in Vietnam are very good

Hoàng Lân 22/2/14 22:53

How pitiful the Libyans are

Vân Nhàn 22/2/14 23:00

What will the opposition party do for their people if they win in the election. Libya needs now is a life of peace not of conflict.

Hùng Quân 22/2/14 23:05

An oil-rich country has been ruined because of political instability. This country should soon find a solution to restore the economy.

Huy Lâm 22/2/14 23:09

This instability due to Western intervention

Quốc Cường 22/2/14 23:21

I am sure your idea is right, Huy Lam.

Lê Tín 22/2/14 23:25

We can see that Vietnam is very excellent and talented to retain such political stability and security for years.

Quốc Kiên 22/2/14 23:31

I believe in the leadership of the Vietnam Communist Party.

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