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“Bad scenario” of the post-Arab Spring
“Bad scenario” of the post-Arab Spring
22/2/14
February 17, 2014, three years after “Arab Spring” intruded into Libya,
which thrusted the inherently prosperous country in North Africa into a period
of instability and turmoil. This event sparked a series of violent protests and
paved the way for military intervention by the West to overthrow the regime of Gadhafi
in Libya. NATO troops have “withdrawn smoothly”, regimes accused of
“dictatorship” by Western countries has ended but Libya is still engulfed in
violence and division.
So far, the “Arab Spring” has passed, the regime of former Libya President Gadhafi
has collapsed but the country Libya has not yet stable. Over three turbulent
years by a series of political events, the transition process in this country
can not be performed or even failing. Conflicts between armed groups, kidnapping
and killing of diplomats, government officials consecutively happen. The
protests and blockade in oil facilities have hampered the activities of the
government, seriously threatened the economy which much depends on oil.
Political tensions in Libya led to the plots to coup. The last February 14,
a senior General in the Libyan army called to dissolve the National Assembly
and called on the Government to “save” the country. Meanwhile, the weak
military of Libya can not control the armed groups which “blossomed” since the
war that toppled Gadhfi’s regime, causing many regions divided by the control of
armed opposition groups. The armed groups are behind the political factions in
the power struggle between the Prime Minister , who is pro- Western, and
Islamist groups in Parliament, who try to weed him out of political arena. Many
mass clashes have happened between factions causing heavy casualties. Recently
violence has caused Libya Assembly declared a state of emergency in the Southern
desert areas.
Unstable political situation seriously affected to the Libya’s economy.
Dilemma of government’s control has made chances for the separatist forces in the
East to declare independence and occupy the oil fields in order to arbitrarily export.
Petroleum industry is regarded as the lifeblood of Libya’s economy, accounting
for 65% of the country's GDP. Therefore, as long as the oil production is sealed
to serve the political interests of the different forces, the country still
faces the risk of economic collapse. Not economy but politics determines the
fate of this North African country. Libya’s ecomomy as well as the process of
democratic transition depend on whether they achieve a political agreement
between the militant leaders or not. There are no signs of any national
dialogue towards a comprehensive solution to help Libya avoid threats to
national unity as well as the in trouble economy.
Destructive power of the storm “Arab Spring” has made Libya, a powerful oil
producer in the region, split into small pieces by manipulation of the various
armed groups. Libya war ended but the transition period in this country has not
yet been able to begin. As a number of neighboring countries in North Africa,
Libya has gone through three dark years and the “bad scenario” could still
happen in the post-Arab Spring.
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All comments [ 10 ]
War is the only enemy of all development.
I dont think that such revolutions can renovate a society because the essence of problem depends on policies of the ruling party.
It can be seen that politics and security in Vietnam are very good
How pitiful the Libyans are
What will the opposition party do for their people if they win in the election. Libya needs now is a life of peace not of conflict.
An oil-rich country has been ruined because of political instability. This country should soon find a solution to restore the economy.
This instability due to Western intervention
I am sure your idea is right, Huy Lam.
We can see that Vietnam is very excellent and talented to retain such political stability and security for years.
I believe in the leadership of the Vietnam Communist Party.
Your comments