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HAS CHINA SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT BY REFUSING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VERDICT?
HAS CHINA SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT BY REFUSING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VERDICT?
8/8/16
China one of the emerging "non democratic" superpowers of modern world , with one of the largest standing Army and second largest economy in the world, has become the headache for its neighboring countries. China has long history of disrespecting the borders of its neighbors and India has faced this chinese act in 1962 war. China has border disputes (land and Sea) with India, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Indonesia with so many territorial disputes China is the only country in Asia.
Historically China had strained relations with India, Japan and Taiwan but with new Chinese belligerence in South China sea china has made countries like Malyasia,Vietnam,Philippines,Brunei,Indonesia wary of Chinese building Military clout. China has blatantly refused to abide by the Hague Verdict on South China Sea and this Chinese posture has angered not only its neighboring South China sea countries ,but the entire world. The world has started looking growing military might of China as a threat to entire world, Chinese dubious record of nuclear proliferation to Pakistan and North Korea is already evident to world and Chinese stand on South China sea has only isolated it globally.
“You can change friends but not neighbors” China has either forgotten this thought or don’t take it seriously because of its growing economic and military stature, but china should keep in mind the consequences of neglecting and encroaching on the sovereignty of neighboring countries . The growing Chinese military clout has prompted the swift action from Japan,Vietnam,Philippines and India to modernize their Armed forces. Also US Navy Seventh Fleet with headquarter in Yokosuka in Japan is already challenging the Chinese Claims in South China Sea. In June 2016 US, India and Japan participated in Malabar Naval exercise to bring more synergy between the three navies and anyone can predict to which country this exercise was directed.
China is aware of the threat of Isolation in global arena that’s why after South China sea verdict china had started lobbying for international favors on its claim, also china knows that it cannot look for a military option in South China sea because in that case china will have to face the Armies of US, Japan and hopefully India, additionally the small armies of Malyasia,Vietnam,Philippines,Brunei,Indonesia will have to support US, Japan and India in case of war with china , to preserve their sovereignty . In this war China can get support from Pakistan “a busted economy” and Russia, but Russia whose economy is recovering from sanctions due Crimea crisis issue and due to very little stake in South China Sea it will be hesitant to give direct support to china.
In Conclusion we can say that this bullying of its neighbors by China has proved disastrous for itself, South China Sea dispute has resulted in militarization of this region which is gravely problematic for China. At last China should not forget that whatever big army you keep but you can’t fight 8 armies without any substantial support from other friendly countries. China’s this fear is evident from the fact that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting India on 12th August to try to make efforts aimed at ensuring that Prime Minister Narendra Modi do not join other countries in raising the controversial issue of South China Sea during the upcoming G20 meeting in early September. India should not forget How China has blocked its NSG bid and should not buckle down in front of the country which has already shot itself in its Foot in South China Sea dispute.
by Udit Dobhal is an ardent fan of IDN and a keen defense enthusiast. This piece on the Chinese misadventure in the South China Sea was written exclusively for IDN. Views expressed are his own
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All comments [ 11 ]
Beijing faces a choice: accept the tribunal’s ruling or through its response, rally the entire region against its provocative actions.
China’s threatened non-compliance with the decision raises important questions on the role of international courts and tribunals in the international system.
International courts and tribunals have a complex array of functions in the international system, and to conflate their value with compliance misunderstands their role.
The value of the arbitral proceedings should not just be determined by China’s non-compliance.
The primary value of the tribunal’s ruling is the clarification of certain principles in UNCLOS that have hitherto been shrouded in uncertainty, or been subject to conflicting interpretations.
China has signed and ratified UNCLOS. However, as the tribunal’s decision went against Chinese interests, China conveniently decided to discredit and reject the ruling.
Some analysts have framed China’s non-compliance as a typical reaction of a “great power.”
Already, China is being labelled as “assertive” or a “bully”; its non-compliance will only serve to reinforce that image.
China will keep pushing ahead with its maritime ambitions in the South China Sea because it regards it as a ‘fortress’… and the only route for China to establish itself as real maritime power.
Chinese “non-acceptance, non-participation, non-recognition and non-compliance“ stance toward the tribunal and rejection of its ruling has only served to reinforce the existing negative image of China in the world.
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