Viet Nam Human Rights
China falls into panic as the ruling’s coming (Part I)
1/7/16
China’s media
campaigns against the case
Any day now, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a United
Nations international court in the Hague, is supposed to issue a ruling on a
case brought by the Philippines against China on the merits of China’s claims
to the entire South China Sea. China has stepped up its rhetoric ahead of an
expected ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague on the
Philippine case. China refuses to recognize the case and says all disputes
should be resolved through bilateral talks.
For months, Chinese officials, state media outlets and
high-ranking military officers have maintained a relentless stream of invective
against the Philippines' pursuit of arbitration, calling it unlawful,
illegitimate and a "political farce."
"The South China Sea arbitration unilaterally
initiated by the Philippines is nothing but a political scheme for one party to
insult the other and will be recorded as an infamous case in the history of
international law," Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin told a group of
visiting reporters in Beijing earlier this month.
That the panel is headed by a former diplomat from
China's old nemesis, Japan, makes it even more worthy of derision, Chinese
critics say. "The ruling can't be objective and fair, and we won't be
giving up our historical rights simply to make China look good," said Wu
Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies.
Not only is China delusional about some of their
evidence, it now appears that they are also delusional about the kind of
support they are getting from the international community.
China claimed it has the support of at least 47 countries
in its position on the South China Sea dispute against the Philippines. Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that Phoenix Chinese News have
done a count on the countries supporting China.
"Their result shows that at least 47 countries have
been publicly reported as supporting China's stance on the South China Sea
issue," Hua said at a press briefing on Thursday. Hua added that the given
number is incomplete as some countries' statements were not yet reported, and said
that the number is changing and claimed that the countries supporting China are
increasing day by day.
Up to now, China is claiming that 60 countries are on
China’s side, with only seven or eight opposed. However, an analysis by the
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies has done the actual research on this issue. AMTI has
searched publicly available, official statements in an effort to determine the
real positions taken by countries.
What does it mean to be “on China’s side”? What AMTI was
looking for was not whether countries take one side or the other on China’s
claims in the South China Sea, but whether countries take one side or the other
on whether the Court’s ruling will be binding.
AMTI has identified 57 countries that appear to be
China’s supporters. Of those, 8 have publicly confirmed their support, 4
have denied Beijing’s claim of support, and 45 have remained publicly silent or
have issued statements that are considerably vaguer than indicated by China. In
contrast, 11 countries plus the European Union have said that the arbitral award
will be legally binding and have called on both China and the Philippines to
respect it.
Out of anxiety, China is resorting to a full-court press
in the propaganda realm, and are doing everything they can to convince other
countries to endorse their position. In particular, China is targeting many
distant countries and land-locked countries, with no direct interest in the
South China Sea. With the exception of Russia, which has been expelled from the
G7 and is under heavy international sanctions, those whose support Beijing's
claims are mostly small states from outside the region with little influence
over the dispute.
Why are these numbers even relevant? There is some
suggestion that China is trying to line up countries on its side, so that if
the Court rules against China, then China can go to the United Nations General
Assembly and try to get a vote rejecting the Court’s decision. If successful,
China could then claim that the United Nations itself has rejected the decision
of a United Nations court.
Anything
is possible, but I would be surprised if anything like a majority of the United
Nations members voted to reject the United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS is a part of international law that has been used to
settle many disputes and keep the peace since the end of World War II, and if
UNCLOS is rejected in this case, then it will open up many disputes that were
previously thought to be settled./. (to be continued)
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All comments [ 10 ]
China always says that its claims “are indisputable,” and this is clearly a lie, since the claims are widely disputed. In fact, China’s claims are at least delusional, and may even be fabricated.
Only eight countries have come out in public support, including land-locked nations such as Niger and Afghanistan.
Seeking to win over global opinion, both China and chief Philippine ally the United States have been lining up friendly nations to back their positions.
China should be afraid due to its poor evidences.
Given the stakes in oil, natural resources and strategic depth, I suspect the Chinese government is willing to pay that price.
The Foreign Ministry spokesman makes official China’s belief that it is supported by 60 countries, with only seven or eight opposed. As we’ll see, these claims are delusional.
China is so arrogant to completely reject the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and has said that this international law may not apply to China’s claims in the South China Sea.
It’s striking that China is appealing to UNCLOS when it’s convenient, just a few weeks before a Court decision that it has already rejected, along with UNCLOS.
China would lose its prestige and position in the world arena for this PCA ruling.
This just adds to a growing picture that Chinese officials are delusional regarding their claims to the South China Sea.
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