A war with North Korea would be a catastrophe for the humankind


Early today, North Korea launched a ballistic missile from the northwestern part of the country. This is the first provocative move from North Korea since South Korean President Moon Jae-in took office last week. Moon has advocated dialogue with North Korea to denuclearize.
 This newly test has sparked a threat of conflict between North Korea and the U.S. and its allies. NBC News issued an anonymously sourced report claiming that the Trump administration was poised to carry out a preemptive strike against North Korea if Pyongyang conducted another nuclear test, as many expected would happen in a near future.
A worried New York Times editorial last week, headlined “Rising Tensions with North Korea,” underscored the dangers of war breaking out in North East Asia. During his March trip to Asia, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson refused to rule out a preemptive strike against North Korea, telling reporters, “If they elevate the threat of their weapons programs to a level that we believe requires action, that option is on the table.”
This all raises a troubling question: What would happen if the US really decided to do it?
THE drums of war are banging loudly as North Korea escalates its threats against the United States. US President Donald Trump has baited North Korea over Twitter warning it was looking for trouble while Pyongyang threatened to launch a nuclear attack on the US if provoked.
The two nations, which are locked in a war of words, have sparked fears a war could be on the horizon.
Suppose Washington did decide to dispose of the evil thugs in Pyongyang. How would it proceed? It would start by heavily bolstering the amount of military assets within striking distance of North Korea. This would involve bringing in multiple aircraft carrier battle groups, increasing the number of troops in South Korea for a ground invasion, moving in large amounts of land-based aircraft, and boosting missile defenses in South Korea, Japan, and allied bases.
The problem is that such a massive military mobilization can't be hidden. North Korea would instantly realize what was up. Pyongyang would certainly have a clear incentive to strike hard and fast knowing it constituted its best chance for survival. Kim would realize his best chance — maybe his only chance — would be to strike with everything in his arsenal at the first sign of a build-up.
A pre-emptive US attack on North Korea would be an act of war with incalculable consequences. While no match for the military power of US imperialism and its allies, North Korea has a huge army, estimated at more than a million soldiers, and a large array of conventional missiles and artillery, much of it entrenched along the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone and able to strike the densely populated South Korean capital of Seoul.
North Korea would have every reason to launch a nuclear war. Why would a nation with less wealth than Ethiopia put billions of dollars into acquiring nuclear weapons? The answer is simple: to ensure that anyone considering imposing regime change won't take the risk. If Washington ever decided it was time to take the regime down, what reason would Pyongyang have from holding back? None. While there is debate whether Kim's missiles have the range or accuracy to hit the continental U.S., it does seem likely they could hit Seoul or Tokyo — one hell of an atomic parting gift. Kim knows all too well he would never be able to defeat an allied invasion — he may just decide to take as many souls down with him as possible.
Imagining a nightmare scenario involving even a small cache of nuclear or chemical or biological weapons is not hard. A handful of such weapons launched at Seoul could create a panic not seen since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Even just one attack with such fearsome weapons on a civilian target must be avoided.
In the event of war, the scale of devastation would be immense just on the Korean Peninsula alone, even without the use of nuclear weapons. In 1994, the Clinton administration was on the brink of attacking North Korea’s nuclear facilities but pulled back at the last minute after the Pentagon gave a sober assessment of the likely outcome—300,000 to 500,000 South Korean and American military casualties.
A war now is unlikely to be conventional or limited to the Korean Peninsula. The Pentagon has been actively planning for a far broader conflict. In December 2015, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said any conflict with North Korea would inevitably be “trans-regional, multi-domain and multifunctional”—in other words, a world war involving other powers and the use of all weapons, including nuclear bombs.
A dangerous confrontation is rapidly emerging on the Korean Peninsula between the United States and North Korea, with the potential to plunge North East Asia and the rest of the world into a catastrophic conflict between nuclear-armed powers.
In addition, China could intervene; indeed, some say that China would be likely to intervene. In doing so, China could try to thwart unification... As ROK, U.S., and Chinese forces advance, conflict could develop between the ROK–United States and China. Both Chinese efforts to thwart unification and conflict with China could further jeopardize Korean unification.
The prospect of a catastrophic war stems not from particular individuals or parties. It is being driven by the deepening crisis of international capitalism and the insoluble contradiction between world economy and the division of the globe into rival nation states. The same crisis of the profit system, however, creates the objective conditions and political necessity for the working class to fight for its own revolutionary solution—a unified anti-war movement of the international working class based on a socialist perspective to put an end to capitalism before it plunges humanity into barbarism./.
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All comments [ 10 ]

yobro yobro 18/5/17 18:52

Such an idea at least seems possible. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, “an internal White House review of strategy on North Korea includes the possibility of military force or regime change to blunt the country’s nuclear-weapons threat, people familiar with the process said.”

LawrenceSamuels 18/5/17 18:53

Pyongyang isn’t exactly tied to the global economy, so sanctions seem unlikely to bring Kim Jong-un to his knees.

Deck Hero14 18/5/17 18:55

While there are no certainties in modern warfare, one thing is certain: an attack on North Korea to rid the world could be an unmitigated disaster.

John Smith 18/5/17 18:56

Why would a nation with less wealth than Ethiopia put billions of dollars into acquiring nuclear weapons? The answer is simple: to ensure that anyone considering imposing regime change won't take the risk.

Only Solidar 18/5/17 18:58

Kim knows all too well he would never be able to defeat an allied invasion — he may just decide to take as many souls down with him as possible.

Jane smartnic 18/5/17 18:59

It would be a humanitarian crisis over the world!

Gentle Moon 18/5/17 20:55

North Koreans have demonstrated they could fire an inter-continental ballistic missile into space and ground tests suggest a warhead could survive re-entry.

Love Peace 18/5/17 20:58

How Mr. Trump intends to handle this brewing crisis is unclear, but he has shown an inclination to respond aggressively.

MaskOf Zero 18/5/17 21:17

The Chinese government is acutely concerned at the prospect of war on its doorstep involving its ally, North Korea.

Pack Cassiopian 18/5/17 21:18

There is a real danger that the Trump administration will turn to war with North Korea in an attempt to project internal social and political tensions outward against the common “enemy.”

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