Political relations among big powers in the coming time

Relations among big countries have exerted a multi-dimensional impact on international movement and development as well as political situation, global economy, international relations and national interests. It is forecasted that in the coming time with rapid and profound changes in the world situation new developments and moves in relations among powers will take place, greatly affecting other countries, including Vietnam.

The relations among big countries in the coming time will be mainly directly influenced by development trends within these countries as well as developments in international relations. The results of the US presidential election on November 2016 and the process of selecting high-level staff of the new president are important basis for forecasting US policy in the coming years. Initial moves show with changes in the new cabinet of President Donald Trump, it is likely that US foreign policy will significantly change, both in terms of security (reduction of international commitments, adjustment of the US-Japan, the US-South Korea, the US-Japan-NATO alliances) and economy (withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO), cancellation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and imposition of import tariffs) as well as the tendency to seek compromise between big powers because Trump represents the conservative political tendency in domestic polity and inward-looking foreign policy. (1) This will have a multi-dimensional impact on international relations in the future.

Prompted by the interests of the United States, especially maintaining the "world hegemony" position, it is likely that the new US administration will continue its involvement in the world in general and in Asia-Pacific in particular, (2) with increasing adjustments in policy (both in terms of content and approach). Uncertainty and instability in international relations will rise as domestic situation in countries becomes more complex; interaction in relations between powers will be more multi-dimensional while "hot spots" in the region have not yet cooled down.

In China, the anti-corruption campaign continues to be used as a "tool" to promote reform. On economy, China will continue to face pressure on economic reform to cope with growth slowdown and the risk of inflation. Therefore, through its initiatives of "One Belt, One Road" and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China will step up its investment in infrastructure development projects in and outside the country to create new growth engines and rally new international and regional forces in order to become a power in 2049. Accordingly, relations with big and neighboring countries continue to be China's foreign strategic focus.

Despite pressure from the West and economic difficulties, Russia has not fallen into political crisis thanks to the high public support for President V. Putin and its effectively operating mechanisms to ensure political stability. President V. Putin’s term will expire in 2018 and even if he is not reelected, he has a lot of influence in the selection of a successor to continue his policies, focusing on strengthening and expanding relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States (SNG) and improving relations with the European Union (EU). On the other hand, Russia will continue implementating its "look-east" policy aimed at restoring its power and expanding its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and overcoming difficulties caused by the West’s embargo. Meanwhile, under the newly-elected President D.Trump’s administration, US policy towards Russia may be adjusted in the direction of reducing tension, and increasing cooperation. This will be a factor that affects relations between Russia and China, Russia and the United States and their relations with third parties in the future.

The United States will also continue to strengthen its relations with the EU and NATO allies to respond to Russia and relations with Japan, Australia, India to respond to China. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to get closer together to deal with the United States. However, both the United States and its allies/partners will not give up the policy of economic cooperation with China and Russia, gradually expanding and advancing to cooperate in other fields, especially in addressing the challenges in non-traditional security. For their parts, China and Russia will continue seeking ways to improve relations with the US and the EU. The peripheral areas around Russia, China, and multilateral and regional cooperation initiatives and forums, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, will continue to be places of fierce competition among big powers.