Fragile cooperation, optimist economy (Part 1)

30/12/2015


The tumultuous 2015 year ended with success and fruitless in the fields of economy, immigration, the fight against terrorism ... The following year is forecasted that economy and security will be the most interesting sectors. Here are some predictions.
Superficial handshake and fragile victory over IS
The systematic violence continues in many parts of the world. The unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will continue. In 2016, forces of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria will lose its position because of raising attacks by Russia, the US and the Western countries. The radical Islamic element is blocked by financial sources, losing weapons and combativeness. IS will not surrender but organize a series of attacks on militants countries such as Russia, USA, UK, France ... as well as on the battlefields in Syrian and Iraq.
The West will continue to suffer suicide attacks but basically awareness and the way to conduct anti-terrorism in these countries will switch to the new way is offensive to root to eradicate IS. According to experts, the change in awareness with the latest developments and issue of interest as a link bringing US , the West, Russia, EU, China closer together in the counter-terrorism issues, not only in the Middle East.
According to experts, the big countries will not miss the opportunity to cooperate in counter-terrorism issue, however, this cooperation is very fragile and difficult to sustain because of complex relationship among countries such as the US-Russia-China. Apart from the Middle East-North Africa, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia is forecasted to be tense with many diplomatic activities that the South China Sea at the center of bilateral and multilateral efforts to resolve sovereignty disputes in this area. Diplomatic activity stalled during Arbitral Tribunal UN is considering the case. Meanwhile, the ASEAN countries and China have not achieved much progress in negotiation on the Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC).
Borderline and failed dreams

Due to the severity of the fight against terrorism, in 2016, the world will continue to witness the suffering and exodus in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia... If the military and foreign operations end in defeat, exodus will grow despite increasingly solid fence system in Europe, even directly create global security risks. Disagreement in Europe due to terrorism and mass migration becomes deeper in 2016, creating a split of the country and the Organization North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). The tension between the "Eastern" and "Southern" allies relates to political security, while NATO must distribute key priority is the instability in North Africa / Middle East or from Russia. Clearly, the EU countries increasing border controls have ended the dream of ot only immigrants but also the European people when it is no longer a Europe without borders, where people, labor and goods freely cross.
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