HSBC: Vietnam to becomes tenth biggest exporter by 2050

Asia is poised to ignite a decade of global trade growth and be the starting point for a quadrupling of worldwide exports to an estimated $68.5 trillion by 2050, according to new forecasts in HSBC’s landmark Trade Winds report released on November 24.
The report identifies three distinct waves of trade development, the first from 1865 to 1913, the second from 1950 to 2007, and the third set to run from 2015 to 2050. The map of world trade created by this third wave of globalization may look very different from today’s, as shifting demographics and economic catch up - with almost 3 billion people joining the middle class by 2050, most of whom will be in emerging markets - lead to significant shifts in trade patterns.
Vietnam strengthens its position in this third wave of globalization, becoming the world’s tenth-largest exporter by 2050 with export value reaching $1.437 trillion, following China, the US, Germany, South Korea, India, Mexico, France, Japan, and Singapore.

India also has the potential for strong growth and is projected to outpace China. The report expects growth in goods exports from India to average 6 per cent a year in the 2025-2050 period, compared with just under 5 per cent a year for China.
The importance of trade’s contribution to global growth and prosperity cannot be underestimated, HSBC’s Regional Head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific, Mr. Paul Skelton, said. “Asia’s position at the leading edge of technological and supply chain innovation gives the region a unique opportunity to benefit from this next wave of globalization,” he said.
Asia-Pacific’s share of global exports is forecast to rise from around one-third in 2015 to 46 per cent in 2050. Western Europe’s share is expected to decline from 34 per cent to 22 per cent, and North America’s to fall from 11 per cent to 9 per cent.
Led by a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region’s share of global exports to 27 per cent by 2050 from 17 per cent at present, the surge will mark a third wave of globalization.
The report identifies four “trade winds” that will drive opportunity for the business leaders of today and tomorrow: the march of industrialization and a shift to mass customization, plummeting transport and logistics costs, further liberalization of trade policy, and the evolution of more nimble business operating models.
Nimble networks of micro-multinationals that create their own specialized value chains will be at the core of a drive for prosperity that promises to take nations out of poverty and improve quality of life across the world, according to the report, which was commissioned by HSBC Commercial Banking and compiled by Oxford Economics./.
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All comments [ 10 ]

yobro yobro 24/11/15 21:13

ietnam’s exports massively outperformed its peers for 2015, with a gross domestic product (GDP) growing 5.98% on-year at a time when shipments from many members of ASEAN were falling.

Only Solidar 24/11/15 21:14

The top ten products collectively jumped 13.9% on-year to gross revenues in excess of US$3 billion, accounting for 69.3% of the country’s total export market.

John Smith 24/11/15 21:15

Vietnam will strengthen its position in the third wave of globalization, set to run from 2015 to 2050, becoming the world’s tenth-biggest exporter by 2050 with its exports reaching $1,437 billion

LawrenceSamuels 24/11/15 21:16

One day, we will overcome China, yeah!

Love Peace 24/11/15 21:18

The top ten products are telephones, garments, computers, footwear, seafood, machinery, crude oil, wood, means of transport, and coffee.

Deck Hero14 24/11/15 21:20

The US, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (RoK) were the top Vietnam’s exports markets. They were also the top markets for the prior year.

Jane smartnic 24/11/15 21:23

With TPP Vietnam will attain its exporting goal.

MaskOf Zero 24/11/15 21:24

The two most labour intensive export products were – garments and footwear – while the most high tech were – telephones and computers.

Gentle Moon 24/11/15 21:25

Vietnam seems likely to grab an even-greater export share as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and a number of FTAs come into effect.

Pack Cassiopian 24/11/15 21:26

It is undeniable that high exports for 2015 drove economic growth and was a bright spot for the national economy and most leading economists have forecast that exports will continue to shine in upcoming years.

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