Syria: The opportunity for peace and silence before the battle (Part 2 and end)

06/03/2016
Analysts said that those concerns are completely unwarranted because areas such as Alleppo still had the presence of "Islamic State" (IS) Al-Nusra, the two objects are not within the scope of the truce and airstrikes to destroy these two forces will be continued.
US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov are the first person to admit that the agreement is unlikely to be prolonged. It looks like an explanation for the silence of the first day and maybe in the next few days due to the fear of being blamed for violating the truce.
Moreover, each party has its own interests in the adoption of the agreement, at least in the present stage: Russia can not break the agreement initiated by themselves and threaten the opportunities in the region of Moscow in the future. Meanwhile, the popular groups need time to gather forces, rearm and resupply resumption sources as well as humanitarian aid to people in the areas under their control. 
Whether the ceasefire is implemented strictly, the process of negotiations on a longer-term agreement for Syria remains the major obstacle. After two failed attempts, the third meeting between the Syrian government and the opposition mediated by the UN, which is expected to take place the day before the ceasefire come into effect, was unable to start because of the inconsistency component opposition to participate in negotiations.
Russia and Iran, two countries support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, still profound disagree with the United States and Saudi Arabia on the opposition groups in Syria considered terrorists and not allowed to participate in negotiation process for political transfer lasting in 18 months.
Some insurgent groups are considered terrorism by Russia, Iran and Syria, but the US and Saudi Arabia are regarded as legitimate opposition groups. Russia and Syria have confirmed that the authorities are willing to join the negotiations but will not negotiate with the groups considered as terrorism.
According to Moscow participants in negotiations include the opposition groups approved by Syrian government, while some opposition forces declared it would not support a peaceful solution for Syria if they are excluded from the process of negotiations.
A complex battlefield with involvement of multiple parties with different attempts are a major obstacle to find a lasting solution for the Syrian crisis. Ceasefire towards the progress to peace or just a pause before the new fierce fighting? The answer depends on the actions of the parties in the coming days.


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